Wheat
Monday’s Recap
Monday’s Wheat market was higher with the March contract up 1’6 to 548’2, a one week high. Across all maturities, a light 76,256 contracts were traded, with 46,874 done in the March maturity. Combined open interest shed 1,790 (0.39%) to 461,721. March lost 3,731, or 1.41%, finishing at 260,376.
Technicals
March Chicago wheat futures traded off the highs along with corn and soybeans, but fared pretty well all things considered. The market is firm in the overnight and early morning trade which bodes well for the chart, so long as that strength can hold. Our resistance pocket gets moved a half a cent higher today, to 554 3/4, a close above here and a run towards 574 1/2-577 1/2 is not out of the question. Above that and we could have a full on trend change.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 548 1/2-554 3/4****, 564 3/4-569**, 574 1/2-577 1/2***
Pivot: 540-542
Support: 520 3/4-529 1/4***
Popular Options
The March 500 put saw the most action with 1,403 contracts traded. Calls with the highest open interest are the March 600 strike (16,960), and for the puts are the March 520 strike (4,406).
Volatility Update
As measured by WVL, implied volatility was moderately higher, up by 0.46 to finish at a one month high of 28.66. Historical volatility (30-day) ended the session at nan%, unchanged nan%. The WVL Skew closed moderately higher, up by 0.82 to settle at a one month high of 9.81.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 12.30.24)
Below is a look at historical price averages for March wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 12.31.24)
- Managed Money increased their net short position by 7,608 contracts from December 17th to December 24th, expanding their net short position to 95,009 contracts.
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