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Cattle futures broke down on Friday as traders continue to fear high prices. With cash prices steady in front of a shortened kill week for next week, trades pressured futures ahead of the weekend. Cash sales were relatively light for the week so far, as it looks like the packer will draw on July contracts next week. The price action, however, did not collapse as early week trades were above the previous week’s average of 259.63 at 260.00. Friday saw some trades at 258.00 and 260.00 so the average shouldn’t falter. Futures traders on the other hand took prices down to support in both Live and Feeder Cattle. Traders don’t seem to trust the fundamentals of the cash market as tightening supplies continue to mount. Even Feeder cattle where the cash index made a new all-time high at 381.86 failed to impress. Traders seem to think prices are too high and continue to sell rallies. The thing is price declines stall as the discount to cash gets wider. So, there is some rational thinking on the pullbacks. I believe traders are looking at the idea that cattle prices are the only market that is at all-time highs and it has to come down. So, they sell the rally and then cash doesn’t collapse so they cover on the break. Dip their toes and buy some and the market rallies and then they get out at resistance. Cash moves higher and then futures rally and then fear comes in and futures prices pull back. This leads to cash consolidating and a slight turn lower. But are cattle prices really inflated? Maybe the market is finally adjusting cattle prices to a more realistic price level as corn is higher and with the tighter supplies the packing industry hasn’t been able to turn and keep cash lower even with all the attempted Black Swans such as the President’s comments on the high beef prices that tumbled price in the fall. Producers are starting to ignore the price action of the futures as they still feel the market is tight and their costs are high, so they don’t give in. The packer knows supply is tight and fights to keep prices down and then finally has to succumb to the tightness and they pay up. Futures eventually have to move towards cash. So, as long as producers maintain their poker face, the futures should eventually have to turn towards cash prices. Traders could then get excited about the cash prices and another new high could result, in my opinion. Some cattle are being marketed early, bringing cattle forward and we are seeing weights decline. The drought is keeping the expansion on hold. Supplies are expected to tighten further into the summer, in my opinion. We have 13 million or so visitors I am told for the World Cup. The visitors are eating out at restaurants. That must be good for demand. Next week is a short buy week for a full slaughter week after the July 4th holiday. Will the packer cave yet again? We’ll See!... August Feeder Cattle opened higher and made the high at 373.525. Price then broke down and traded to the low at 268.50. It drifted into the close and settled at 369.85. The open saw price reject the new all-time high in the index, and the negative sentiment took price past support at the 8-DMA at 369.65 and the key level at 369.375. Settlement was above support. If price fails to hold settlement, we may see a further pullback to test support at 365.675. Support then comes in at 363.00. If settlement holds, we could revisit the Friday high. Resistance then comes in at 375.075. August Live Cattle opened lower and ticked to the session high at 247.25. This was just above the previous day’s settlement and the key level at 246.975. Sellers took control and took price straight to the low at 245.50. Price turned higher and traded back to the high before breaking down to just above the low and drifted into the close to settle just above the low at 245.825. The breakdown and settlement took price below the 50-DMA now at 245.90. If price can’t hold settlement, it can test support at 245.125. Support then comes in at 242.05. If cattle can overcome the 50-DMA it could test resistance at the Friday high. Resistance then comes in at 248.30.
The Feeder Cattle Index hasn’t updated, and the Thursday index increased and is at 381.86 as of 06/24/2026 settlement.
Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts fell 5.29 to 391.03 and select sank 3.16 to 371.58. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 19.45 and the load count was 94.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 100,000, which is above last week’s 95,000 and below last year’s 106,832. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 4,000, which is below last week’s 5,000 and above last year’s 2,224. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 537,000, which is above last week’s 526,000 and below last year’s 561,022.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been light on moderate demand in the Western Cornbelt. Compared to last week, live purchases have been steady at 260.00. There have been a few dressed purchases from 408.00-410.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established dressed market in the Western Cornbelt was last week at 405.00 on a light test. Negotiated cash trade has been limited on moderate demand in the Southern Plains. There have been a few live purchases at 258.00 in the Texas Panhandle and Kansas, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market in the Texas Panhandle was last week with live purchases from 258.00-260.00. The last established market in Kansas was last week with live purchases from 258.00-260.00, mostly 260.00. Negotiated cash trade has been mostly inactive on moderate demand in Nebraska. The last established market in Nebraska was last week with live purchases at mostly 260.00 and dressed purchases from 405.00-408.00, mostly 408.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 258.00 – 260.00 and from 408.00 – 410.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
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