Corn and Wheat Firm while Soybeans Struggle

StoneX October Survey Update

• US corn yield raised to 184 bu/acre from 182.9: StoneX
• US corn production is estimated at 15.222 billion bushels, up from 15.127 billion last month
• Change comes after the USDA’s Sept. 12 increase to 183.6 bu/acre
• StoneX estimates US soybean production at 4.613 billion bushels with a yield of 53.5 bu/acre
• Those compare to last month’s estimates of 4.575 billion and 53 bu/acre

Corn

Technicals (December)

Corn futures broke out above first resistance which is adding a tailwind to prices overnight and in the early morning trade. As mentioned in yesterday’s report, we see the next upside objective above 426 1/2-428 as 441-443. A failure to maintain price action above 426 1/2-428 could neutralize the chart in the short term. Momentum remains stout as the rally starts morphing into a hated rally, hated rallies generally last longer and go further than people expect.

Technical Levels of Importance

• Resistance: 441-443*
• Pivot: 426 1/2-428
• Support: 413 1/2-416, 408 1/2-409*

Seasonal Tendencies
The start of October has historically offered argument of a harvest low being solidified, whether or not that rings true this year is TBD. The chart below represents price averages for December corn over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year periods. If you want more information on the back tested data for a specific time frame or a specific contract, please reach out to our trade desk.

*Past performance isn’t necessarily indicative of future results.

Wheat

Technicals (December)

Wheat futures were the leader to the upside in yesterday’s trade as prices settled right at first resistance from 596-600. The market is chewing through that pocket in the early morning session, if the Bulls can retain that momentum through the regular trading hours, we could see our next resistance pocket tested sooner rather than later, we’ve outlined that as 613-615. Ultimately, we still like the upside in wheat and believe low volatility measures make options attractive to gain exposure while limiting risk and offering staying power.

Technical Levels of Importance

• Resistance: 596-600, 613-615*
• Pivot: 582 3/4-584 1/4
• Support: 571 3/4-574 3/4, 556 1/4-560 1/2*

Seasonal Tendencies
The chart below represents price averages for December wheat over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year periods. If you want more information on the back tested data for a specific time frame or a specific contract, please reach out to our trade desk.

*Past performance isn’t necessarily indicative of future results.

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