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August Lean Hogs consolidated in the upper end of the recent trading range on the continuous chart. It made its low at 96.10 early, testing support at the 8-DMA now at 96.475 and then reversing and trading to its high at 97.225 which was a test of resistance at 97.30. It pulled back and settled unchanged at 96.725. Hogs continue to struggle as higher production continues to outpace demand for pork. This has kept cash prices in a trading range which continues to keep hog futures on the defensive. Demand for pork has been disappointing with exports up and down and US demand weaker than expected. Cutouts continue to languish in the mid-90s which has limited the upside on the cash index. It has hovered in the low 90s and we need to see, in my opinion stronger demand for our exports as we just had a marketing year low at 16,100 MT from the last report with China and Mexico as the largest purchasers of our pork at a whopping 4,100 MT. For China to be in the leadership position when they are in the midst of an oversupply situation in their country and are trying to reduce their hog supply is not likely to be sustainable, in my opinion. It is a surprise that they are even buying our pork in light of their continuous attempts to tighten their supplies. We have the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report out this Thursday which will give an indication of hog breeding intentions and supplies going forward. Hog performance has been surprising and disappointing. We’ll see!... A failure from the low could see price test support at 95.30. Support then comes in at 93.50. If price can hold settlement, it could re-test the Monday high. Resistance then comes in at 98.475.
The Pork Cutout Index ticked lower and is at 95.67 as of 06/19/2026.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 92.17 as of 06/18/2026.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 468,000, which is below last week’s 478,000 and above last year’s 456,884.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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