Shootin' the Bull about upcoming sales

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

6/22/2026

Live Cattle:​

A sharply higher start to the trading session faded to down on the day, and then recovered before the close.  ​The spread between cattle and beef will become more interesting over the next several weeks as cattlemen will be in the midst of marketing large swaths of inventory, some of which will go on feed, and all are in hopes of bringing top dollar.  Packers, noting consumers are not seemingly increasing willingness to spend, will be on the back side of this for which cattle feeders will want a lot more, because they had to pay more.   There is a significant balancing act taking place between cattle feeders and packers for which the cattle feeder does not want to market inventory and the packer doesn't want to bid higher. This balancing act is becoming long in the tooth as well, leading to an unfortunate, expected outcome of further reduction in processing and production capacity. Taking into consideration the screwfly, and loss of Mexican cattle, border states are believed in the most jeopardy of. ​

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​​​​Feeder Cattle: ​

The close proximity of the feeder cattle index to historic high, combined with significant convergence of basis is putting cattle feeders back into the hot seat.  With a portion of the video cattle marketed to go on feed, at tip top prices desired for, cattle feeders are expected to have to do something to either curtail the price of feeders, or encourage the price of fats.  As both are expected to be difficult, cattle feeders are anticipated to work themselves into deeper starting negative margins. Last week improved on the negative starting margin with a tad lower cost of gain.  Still, that is not nearly enough to return input costs.  Nothing has changed in that cattle feeders have to have a higher price.  As we know packers need a higher beef price, and cattlemen want a higher price for cattle, the balancing act may take on juggling as well.      

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​​​​Corn:

All were lower or soft. The loss of the energy trade and widely scattered rain is making it difficult to find a toe hold. 

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Energy:​

Energy started higher and ended lower.  While the bull market may resume, it is not showing signs of yet. 

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Bonds:

​Bonds are lower on the day.   There isn't much anticipated to take place in bonds as inflation is high, but the President likes inflation.  

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​​​​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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