Did A 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Just End The Cattle Rally?

Did A 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Just End The Cattle Rally?

The charts are key to this analysis.

(LEQ26) (GFQ26) 

ONE44 78.6% Rule,

Any market that hits 78.6% should go 78.6% back the other way. This is also where a lot of Bull markets end and start.

In Live Cattle and Feeders the strength in the market has been confirmed by each setback holding a 38.2%, 23.6% retracement. For Cattle it was 38.2% on 3/9/26 and then again it stayed above 38.2% on 6/4/26. 

In Feeders it held 38.2% on 3/12/26 and on 6/3/26 it had one close belo 38.2%, only to get right back above it the next day.

We are looking for new highs from these 38.2% levels, however we watch all the retracements on every move to see just how strong, or weak the market is regardless of the longer term target. Right now both markets are at 78.6% that could end the rally and cause a sharp selloff. The first target is always 78.6% of where it just came from.

Here is our analysis for this week,

Livestock

Cattle

August

From last week,

It has been a very volatile trade above and below the 240.80 major Gann square and swing point for the week. The positive for the market is that it remains above the long term 38.2% retracement and swing point at 231.00 and following the ONE44 38.2% rule a new high is possible. As always we watch all the retracements on every move to see just how strong, or weak the market is regardless of the long term target, so we will still be watching the 78.6% retracement above for a possible failure to make a new high. We will use the 240.80 major Gann square as the key level for the week again. All the Above/Below targets remain the same for this week.

Use 240.80 as the swing point for the week again.

Above it, the short term target area is 78.6% back to the 5/1/26 high at 247.65 and the 248.40 major Gann square,  A failure to turn...

The market held the 240.80 major Gann square and swing point for the week. It hit the short term target area of 78.6% at 247.65 and the 248.40 major Gann square, it had a couple minor closes above it, but failed to make a new high and today closed below 78.6% at 247.65 and this will be the key level for the week. A failure to make a new high in the area of a 78.6% retracement can be the end of the rally for now per the ONE44 78.6% rule. 

Use 247.65 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, a failure to turn lower from this area gives us only major Gann squares to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when closed above, the next two are 257.07 and 265.40.

Below it, the short term target is 78.6% of where it just came from at 237.50, this is the first target following the ONE44 78.6% rule. The longer term target is 38.2% of the contract high and low at 231.25, this is the long term swing point.

Feeder Cattle

August

From last week,

All but one day closed above the 352.50 (38.2%) swing point keeping the short term trend positive as well as the long term trend above 346.00 and this keeps the idea of a new high possible (ONE44 38.2% rule). We will use 352.50 as the key level for the week again. 

Use 352.50 as the swing point for the week again.

Above it, turns the short term trend positive as well and the long term target is a new ATH. The short term target area is the 366.25 major Gann square and 78.6% back to the 5/1/26 high at 370.25. A failure to ....

The rally from the 352.50 major Gann square hit the short term target area of the 366.25 major Gann square and 78.6% at 370.25, It fell short of 78.65 at 370.25 and it will be the key level for the week. A failure to make a new high in this area can end the bull move for now.

Use 370.25 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, a failure to turn lower from this area will give us only major Gann squares to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when closed above, the next one is 398.55.

Below it, the short term target is 78.6% the other way at 342.95 per the ONE44 78.6% rule. Any setback that holds 38.2% at 356.50 keeps the trend extremely strong and a new high can quickly follow.

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Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.

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