Shootin' the Bull about a lot of cattle on feed

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

6/18/2026

Live Cattle:​

A soft close.  I think it simply more recognition of the congestion forming at the center of the plate than anything else.  On feed came out as expected with 102% on feed (11.7 million head) 90% placed and 88% marketed.  

​​

​​​​Feeder Cattle: ​

Too much production capacity, for the number of animals to produce, causes cattlemen that want to stay in the cattle business, to pay more to do so.  There is not much more to it than that. Whether they profit from or not remains dependent upon whether prices move higher or lower and nothing else. The price moving higher will be expected from a breakup of congestion at the center of the plate. A shift to stronger consumer demand would be anticipated to break the congestion.  At the moment, I don't foresee that.  The price moving lower will be expected due to the congestion at the center of the plate.  Keeping domestic beef demand stable is believed a challenge, but to grow may be a stretch.  That doesn't mean it will falter either, but we have already seen that taking place through beef exports to other countries. Imported beef will continue as well with Mexico not expected to curtail production by one head, even if the border opens.  

 ​

​​​​Corn:

All moved lower with expectations of corn making a new contract low.  If does, I will be looking to add to or initiate buying corn calls at price levels you no longer wish to pay for corn.  Soybean meal is believed in a similar position to be of great benefit to pork, poultry, and aquaculture producers into the future with minimal carry and a near price level of support.  

​

Energy:​

Energy was lower for most of the day, but gasoline came back strong.  Most likely due to the spreads being unwound between diesel and gasoline.  

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Bonds:

​Bonds are higher, as are notes.  The President is adamant he wants inflation and so, we will most likely have more inflation.  

​​​​

​​​​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.