
What Happened?
A number of stocks fell in the afternoon session after the U.S. and Iran signed an interim agreement that would waive sanctions on Tehran's oil and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
WTI futures fell as much as 3.5% to an intraday low of $73.60, the lowest since March 2, the first trading day after the initial US-Israeli strikes on Iran, while Brent crude dropped 2% to $77.96. The catalyst was a 14-point memorandum of understanding signed by the US and Iran, which begins a 60-day negotiation period. This stripped away the geopolitical risk premium that had been the energy sector's most powerful tailwind for months.
Under its terms, Iran will allow toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz immediately, with full traffic capacity restored within 30 days. Roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil and LNG transits the strait. Saudi tankers and LNG carriers were already departing the Gulf region as shipping activity began to normalize. Oil reached as high as $120 per barrel at the peak of the conflict and fell nearly 29% in a month. That collapse reflects markets pricing in the return of Iranian barrels to global supply, barrels that had been sanctioned out of the market, alongside the reopening of the world's most critical energy shipping lane.
The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks.
Among others, the following stocks were impacted:
- Oilfield Services company TechnipFMC (NYSE:FTI) fell 3.9%. Is now the time to buy TechnipFMC? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
- U.S. Shale E&P company Chord Energy (NASDAQ:CHRD) fell 3.6%. Is now the time to buy Chord Energy? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
- U.S. Shale E&P company Crescent Energy (NYSE:CRGY) fell 4.3%. Is now the time to buy Crescent Energy? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
Zooming In On Crescent Energy (CRGY)
Crescent Energy’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 36 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 3 days ago when the stock dropped 3.2% on the news that a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran sent oil prices tumbling, dragging down the energy sector.
Rystad Energy estimated that US shale producers stood to generate an additional $63 billion in free cash flow in 2026 if WTI averaged $100 for the year. With WTI falling more than 5% to $80.61, that calculation shifted materially. Most producers remain profitable at current prices, but the marginal economics of new well drilling weaken meaningfully at lower levels, and the market prices direction as much as the current number.
The structural concern extended beyond the session. The peace deal opens a 60-day negotiation on lifting Iranian oil sanctions. If Iranian exports are eventually restored (they ran at roughly 3 million barrels per day before the conflict) the additional supply would represent a persistent overhang that US shale producers, who were the primary market-share beneficiaries of Iran's absence from global markets, would absorb most directly.
Crescent Energy is up 21.1% since the beginning of the year, but at $10.31 per share, it is still trading 25.9% below its 52-week high of $13.92 from May 2026. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Crescent Energy’s shares at the IPO in December 2021 would now be looking at an investment worth $612.84.
ONE MORE THING: The $21 AI Application Stock Wall Street Forgot. While Wall Street obsesses over who’s building AI, one company is already using it to print money. And nobody’s paying attention.
AI chip stocks trade at ridiculous valuations. This company processes a trillion consumer signals monthly using AI and trades at a third of the price. The gap won’t last. The institutions will figure it out. You need to see this first. Read the FREE Report Before They Notice.