Warsh held the rate but raised the dots — and Trading Hours for Juneteenth

Hello Traders!

The 90-Second Read

REGIME Hawkish Hold —
Higher-for-Longer

What changes it: a soft 8:30 jobless-claims print or a clean Friday Iran signing lets the oil-down relief broaden and caps the front-end. What confirms it: any Warsh-committee speaker validating the hike bias now that the blackout has lifted, or claims under 220k. The new chair removed the dot plot as a guard-rail, so data and Fed speak hit an unscripted tape.

1. The Fed flipped the script Warsh's first FOMC held 3.50–3.75% on a unanimous 12–0 vote, but the SEP median 2026 dot jumped to 3.8% from 3.4% — 9 of 18 members now pencil in at least one 25bp hike this year, not a cut. Markets moved the first-hike bet to as early as October.
2. A record reversed into red The Dow printed a fresh record near 52,000 intraday, then the whole tape rolled: S&P −1.21% to 7,420.10, Nasdaq −1.34%, the 2Y +16bp to a one-year high, and the dollar's best day in roughly a year. It was a clean hawkish repricing, not a panic.
3. Oil is the offset The post-ceasefire crude crash is the counterweight: WTI $75.51, Brent sub-$80, about a quarter off the month's high, with the US–Iran MOU set to sign Friday. Lower energy is the only near-term lever that softens a 3.6% projected PCE — it is doing the disinflation the Fed won't.
4. The cross-currents The dollar bid hammered the havens-and-duration crowd: gold −2.6% to $4,267, silver −4.8%, Bitcoin −1.3% to ~$63.9k with crypto's Fear & Greed gauge crushed to 15 (extreme fear). Real yields up, dollar up, anything that competes with cash gets sold.
5. What to watch pre-bell8:30a jobless claims is the first read on Warsh's "still-strong labor" thesis. Intel is leading a chip-led futures bounce on an Apple US-design tie-up; the level math is simple — reclaim 7,500 to neutralize the Fed day, lose 7,400 and the unwind extends.

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Today's levels:

Today's Market Bias:

Juneteenth modified schedule:

Good Trading!

Ilan Levy-Mayer, M.B.A
Vice President
Cannon Trading Co, Inc. Est. 1988
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