Good Morning — Monday, June 15
Take a look at this. Despite oil collapsing, which grains are basically trading like oil at $60 already, corn pile-drives into some major support at 440.
What I'd like you to see is just how far back this support goes. I'm zoomed in about as tight as I can get for your phone, and this support level can be traced all the way back to the fall of 2024. That puts us right in this 4.40 to 4.44 range.
This makes what's happening today pretty important.
My suspicion is that we've likely seen about as bad as things are going to get for the time being. We have the June 30 Crop Report coming up. Is corn acreage going to be 95 million acres, or is it going to be 94 million acres?
If it's 94 million acres, we could see a carryout closer to 1.8 billion bushels, which could open the door for a rally.
Then, of course, there's the question of when China will lift its tariffs. That could be the next major story for this market.
Nonetheless, any recovery rally—whether it's driven by wheat, the June 30 USDA report, or China—will likely run into resistance around 4.70. That's going to be the problem child.
But the main thing I want you to see today is this: 440 is kind of a big deal right now, and it's holding.
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