Wheat Bounce Guess

Good morning. It's Wednesday, June 10.

Let's take a look at wheat futures and a possible rebound target.

We're talking about the wheat market's sharp decline from the January/December low to what is now the early May high. The break lower has unfolded in three waves, which many technical traders would label an ABC correction within a larger bull market.

Looking at the first leg down from the high, if you take that move and multiply it by 1.786—a classic extension often associated with capitulation or collapse-type values—you arrive at a target near 574¾. Interestingly, that level was reached and violated almost immediately during Sunday night's trading session. Within seconds of touching 578, the market broke to a low of 574¾ before attempting to recover.

This morning, following President Trump's 6:00 a.m. comments regarding Iran, wheat futures rallied quickly and nearly reached the 25% retracement level. Bears typically defend that area, and the market missed it by only a tick or two before pulling back. That's not necessarily a concern at this point.

Now, attention shifts to tomorrow's WASDE report. There's a possibility USDA could trim wheat production estimates further. In addition, cold and wet weather across portions of the Soft Red Winter wheat region could increase the risk of scab development, which negatively impacts test weights and overall grain quality.

If those factors provide additional support, we could see one more push higher toward the 38% retracement level of this entire decline. That target comes in around the 610 to 615 area and coincides with a key moving average that traders will be watching closely.

For now, the important takeaway is that a recovery rally appears to be underway following this recent collapse. Weather concerns and the WASDE report could provide enough fuel to push wheat into that 610–615 range.

However, if the bears regain control at those levels, they may pressure the market lower once again. Seasonal tendencies suggest the wheat market typically finds its harvest low in mid-July, though this year that low could arrive earlier—possibly in late June or early July—as the Kansas wheat harvest is expected to progress rapidly.

As always, click like and follow for more market updates and analysis.

*This is not trading advice; past results are not indicative of future results

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