German Cowboys and Yemen Pirates

Good Day,

The corn market has been slow, boring, and slightly lower and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see that continue.  However, between now and the January 12th WASDE report I look for the market to find a low spot and have some positive movement as we head into the late winter, early spring months.  That is based on seasonal tendencies as much as anything, but we did see the two cargoes of corn sold to “Unknown” a couple of weeks ago switched to China.  One could argue it was expected and China isn’t in the market for anymore corn and I would accept that argument.  In fact, I would probably make that argument, but there is a difference in being bearish trying to squeeze the last drop of juice out of a carry market at the end of a year vs the beginning of a new one when narrative’s start to be more concerned with what the weather in 2024 will be.  China buying a little U.S. corn hasn’t changed the narrative but it will be something for bears to consider should the current narrative of no worries come into question.

Ropin’ the Wind 

Germany - Renewable energies will have covered almost 52% of gross electricity consumption in 2023 according to the Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden- Württemberg.  This is an increase from 46% in 2022 and the first time to see it clear 50% in total.  Germany has been in the news this year with their decision to push forward on phasing out nuclear energy.   The last three remaining nuclear power plants were phased out in 2023.  Power generated from coal has gone up in total along with renewables.  Germany intends to have 80% of their total electricity coming from renewables in 2030.  Having your paycheck depend on the weather and the clock is not new for a lot of folks, especially those in the ag industry, but now they will have company at the coffee shop discussing the effects on the billing side as well.

In related news Europe is going into Christmas with a warm, wet, and windy weather pattern.  January 2024 Natural gas futures are trading around $2.60 near the lows of the year which were put in one week ago at a price of $2.235.

Black Sea-Red Sea-Brown Pants

Terrorist attacks on container ships in the Red Sea from Houthi Rebels based out of Yemen has major shipping companies re-routing to avoid the area and the Suez Canal adding time and cost to normal shipping procedures.  The U.S. Navy and allied forces have been called into action attempting to calm the choppy waters.  This route is critical to any ocean shipping coming out of Europe or the Black Sea area headed towards Asia.  With the Black Sea shipping channels already suffering increased stress due to the Ukraine/Russia conflict adding an additional gauntlet to run for any shipper still willing to attempt a pass through the Suez Canal into the Red Sea will come with increased freight cost in the form of increased insurance premiums and perhaps a heavier laundry load for the maritime sailors facing tense waters thick enough to be cut with a drone missile.

February Crude Oil Futures were up $2.49/brl for the week around noon on Friday at $74/brl.  

“Life is complicated. The solution is simple. Do the right thing.”
― David von Drehle, The Book of Charlie: Wisdom from the Remarkable American Life of a 109-Year-Old Man

(A great book that would make an excellent stocking suffer for anyone on your list you may have missed.)  

Merry Christmas!