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July Lean Hogs gap opened lower at the low of the day at 99.325. It immediately turned higher and rallied to the session high at 100.875. The rally stalled as it ran into strong short-term moving average resistance as the 8, 13 and 21-DMAs were too tough for traders to push price through for any length of time, with the price levels at 100.775, 100.80 and 100.45 respectively. The market seemed to rally on Friday’s positive cutout move but it wasn’t a sustainable rally even with a strong morning cutout as traders continued to liquidate positions on the rally. The pullback in price took Hogs back below the key level at 100.075 settling at 99.85, just above the low. Traders don’t trust rallies right now as they aren’t convinced the cash market has turned the corner and will break out above its recent highs. The cutout and cash markets have been at these levels before and have pulled back. The cutout would break above the 100.00 level for the one -day and then has pulled back towards its recent lows. The cash index would near the 93.00 level and pullback towards 90.00. Traders would like to see sustained upward moves in the cash market, in my opinion to show stability and imply good demand for pork. Our exports have been fair to good but consumer demand seems to be tepid at best, which is keeping prices in its limited range. With slaughter levels declining as expected due to the seasonality and grilling season now in full swing, we need to see the consumer come in and take charge and purchase more pork. This would supplement our exports and with the lower production expected, we could finally see a sustained move in the cash markets to the upside and push futures out of its doldrums and get funds interested in taking long positions again as they have liquidated positions are at their lightest long position in quite a while(since mid 2024), in my opinion. A strengthening cutout would go a long way in improving trader sentiment in my opinion. We’ll see!... A failure from settlement could see price test support at 98.475 and the nearby rising 100-DMA now at 98.375. Support then comes in at 97.30. If price can hold settlement, it could re-test resistance at 100.075 and the short-term moving averages. Resistance then comes in at 101.975.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 98.46 as of 05/29/2026.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 91.40 as of 05/28/2026.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 476,000, which is above last week’s holiday slaughter of 1,000 and last year’s 463,539.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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