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The cattle markets showed early strength on Friday as both markets rallied from their opening price to their session highs. Price turned lower and fell to new lows for the session. They then drifted higher from their lows settling near unchanged for the day. April Live Cattle made its high at 241.675, made its low at 239.50 and it settled a ticked lower from Thursday’s settlement at 240.625. March Feeder Cattle rallied to 369.20, feel back to its low at 364.46 and then settled at 366.15. In my opinion the early rally was about a hope for higher cash as the cash trade has been all but non-existent for the week. Lower cutouts and talk of lower packer bids turned the market sour, taking price down to the lows. The market bounce came about as cash generally was higher than the initial bids but it was light trade with some producers passing on the elevated bids. My customers said that cash trades took place at 382.00 on a dressed basis and at 244.00 on a live basis, with dressed higher than last week and live trades at the upper end of last week’s trade. With cash showing prices higher than last week, it is a little surprising the futures market didn’t do better in front of a three-day week-end with Monday’s Presidents Day holiday. I think traders are somewhat wary of the market with prices near the all-time highs in both cash and futures and cutouts no-where near its all-time highs and the upcoming seasonal trend for weakness in the cutout, cash and futures. This has limited the price action as rallies have been sold, but breakdowns bought. You also have many analysts always talking about record weights and the lengthy days on feed we are currently seeing as cattle grading has been through the roof. This has led to the select cutout becoming a niche product and catching up to the choice in price as the spread between the two has narrowed, with the select actually trading above the choice a couple of times. The prime and choice grading has grown considerably due to the genetics and expanded days on feed, with choice and prime now making up 84% of the grading. Prime now makes up at least 12% of the meat processed. This has been helpful for both the packer and the producer, in my opinion. So, maybe the heavy weights and days on feed has been good for the market not a negative. These same analysts have said at every cycle we have seen heavier weights and less cattle when the herd is rebuilt. How is the length of days on feed and heavier cattle something to worry about? This is not 2018 or 2019 when the packer played games with the producer when they were slaughtering huge amounts of cattle when the numbers were much higher than they are now. It’s like they are speaking packer-speak, trying to create uncertainty when maybe they should be saying this is the new normal. The packer continues to ask for heavier weights on cattle and until that changes…. We’ll see! It is after the close and I am hearing cash trades took place in Texas at 248.00 on a live basis. If the rumor turns out to be true, they have tied the all-time high price that the north reach back in August of 2025. AND this is February… If April Live Cattle can hold settlement, we could see price test resistance at 242.075. Resistance then comes in at 245.125. A breakdown from the low could see price test support at 238.125. Support then comes in at 235.625. If Feeder cattle can hold settlement, it could see price re-test resistance at 369.375. Resistance then comes in at 375.075. A breakdown from the low could see price test support at the 21-DMA now at 363.85. Support then comes in 363.00.
The Feeder Cattle Index ticked higher and is at 373.91 as of 02/12/2026.
Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts dipped 0.37 to 364.47 and select rose 0.39 to 363.47. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 1.05 and the load count was 60.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 86,000, which is above last week’s 85,000 and below last year’s 101,725. Saturday slaughter s expected to be 1,000, which is even with last week and below last year’s 5,790. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 541,000, which is above last week’s 536,000 and below last year’s 562,260.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been moderate on moderate to good demand in Nebraska. Compared to last week, early live purchases have been 5.00 higher from 244.00-245.00, mostly 245.00, while early dressed purchases have been 2.00-4.00 higher from 380.00-382.00. Negotiated cash trade has been limited on moderate demand in the Western Cornbelt. There have been a few early live purchases at 244.00 and a few early dressed purchases at 380.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market in the Western Cornbelt was last week with live purchases from 240.00-242.00 and dressed purchases at 378.00. Negotiated cash trade has been inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains. The last established market in the Texas Panhandle was last week with live purchases at mostly 245.00. The last established market in Kansas was last week with live purchases from 242.00-245.00, mostly 245.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 240.00 – 245.00 and from 376.00 – 382.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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