Lean hog futures are down by triple digits through the April contract. Dec is down the most on a 2.2% loss so far for Tuesday. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was $1.13 weaker on Tuesday morning to $89.16. The CME Lean Hog Index dropped 80 cents to $98.81 on 8/18.
USDA’s Ag Attache estimates China’s hog herd to end 2023 at 435m head, down from 452m last year. The liquidation is expected to continue into 2024, with USDA forecasting an ending inventory of 416.8m head. The Attache expects 2024 pork consumption to decrease by 740k MT to 58.15 MMT – with imports only rising by 20k MT yr/yr. Most of the offset will draw down China’s pork stocks.
Pork cutout futures are down by $0.75 to $1 at midday. The National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $1.07 weaker in the AM report to $104.14. Bellies were down by $9.89. CME’s Fresh Bacon Index was $26.41 lower to $255.46 for the week that ended 8/18. USDA’s estimate for FI hog slaughter was 478k head for Monday. That is 17k head more than last week, but is down 6k head from the same week last year.
Oct 23 Hogs are at $79.275, down $1.350,
Dec 23 Hogs are at $72.050, down $1.675
Oct 23 Pork Cutout is at $91.375, down $1.000,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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