U.S. and global wheat production projections down for 2026/2027

I am Stephen Davis, senior market strategist at Walsh Trading, Inc., Chicago, Illinois. You can reach me at 312-878-2391.

The forecast for 2026/27 United States winter wheat is down 25 percent from last year to 1,048 million bushels, primarily on sharply reduced Hard Red Winter production, according to today's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This report follows a USDA Crop Progress report that says about 40 percent of winter wheat crops are rated poor or very poor in the face of continuing drought conditions in the Southern Plains and freeze damage. 

The WASDE report stated that U.S. wheat production is forecast at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million bushels from 2025-26 because of lower harvested area and yields. Ending stocks are projected to fall 18 percent to 762 million bushels, while the season-average farm price is forecast at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from the previous year. 

The WASDE global outlook for wheat in 2026/27 is for lower supplies, marginally lower consumption, reduced trade, and decreased ending stocks compared with 2025/26. Global production is forecast at 819.1 million tons, down from last year’s record 843.8 million. A large share of the lower production is from all the major wheat exporting countries. The largest reductions are projected for the United States, the EU, Argentina and Australia.

In my opinion, these reports are bullish for wheat futures but are not reasons to chase the market. A trade strategy is to buy July 2026 Wheat at 650.0. Risk the trade at 640.0 stop, good til cancelled. Profit objective is 672.0, which is today's high. You are risking 10 cents to make 22 cents on each contract.

To discuss trading strategies, contact me anytime. Have an excellent day. 

Stephen Davis
Senior Market Strategist 
Walsh Trading

Direct 312 878 2391 
Toll Free 800 556 9411
sdavis@walshtrading.com  
www.walshtrading.com

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