Chart of the Day - December Corn

The information and opinions expressed below are based on my analysis of price behavior and chart activity

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Tuesday, May 5, 2026

December Corn (Daily) 

Today, December Corn closed at 5.00 ½, dropping back 4 cents from Monday’s close.  Higher highs and higher lows were posted on the chart, relative to Monday’s trade. 

Weekly Planting Progress data was published by the USDA yesterday, pegging the Corn crop at 38% planted, compared to the 5-year average of 34% completed.  13% of the crop has emerged, compared to 9% over the past 5 seasons.  Both of those seem to suggest that planting is going well, so far, in 2026. 

There appears to be a bit of speculation that US farmers may cut back on their Corn acreage this year.  Some sources attribute that to lower prices, relative to Soybeans, while some sources point to higher costs for fuel and fertilizer, surprising producers that didn’t buy seed, chemicals or fuel over the winter. The Acreage Survey response to the USDA earlier this spring was not robust, with only about 37% of the surveys returned.  Don’t quote me on that percentage, I may be off by a few points, but as I recall the number was definitely in the 30’s.  It’s my understanding that the responses were due before the war/conflict with Iran started and that may have influenced some changes in decision-making for some producers out there.  

By looking at the chart above, you may notice that all of the moving averages displayed are in a bullish configuration and are all trending higher.  The closest is the 5-day, offering potential support near 4.98, with the 10-day about a nickel lower.   That 5-day average (blue) has been tested each of the past 4 days, and has held as support, so far.  The red (bearish) candle that occurred last week on April 30^th, looks very similar to today’s bar, to my eye.  Today’s activity may have just been “Turnaround Tuesday” type of trade and the algo-bulls might push things higher as the week progresses.

According to the Commitment of Traders report, as of last Tuesday, Managed Money (funds) held a net long position of 264,000 contracts, adding nearly 80,000 longs in Corn over the week before.  I don’t see any sign yet, but if or when they do decide to sell out of their positions, prices could tumble rather quickly.  I would maintain a long-side bias in the futures, at the moment.

However, with December Corn hitting the 5.00 level for the first time since December 2023, this may be a good spot for producers to begin hedging a portion of this year’s crop.  I know that most producers are still worried about getting the crop in the ground, but attention still needs to be paid to marketing that crop.  With the exception of 2024 and 2025, this contract usually makes it’s yearly high in May or June, going back for the past 10 years or so.  I think that producers may do well to consider hedging perhaps 20% of their intended or expected production at or near these price levels.   There’s nearly the whole crop year left, and we’ve got a long way to go before harvest.  But the nice round number of 5.00 might be a good place to start.  It’s certainly about 40 cents higher than February’s Crop Insurance price of 4.62 and should be at a level where your crop “pencils” profitably.

I would suggest using option strategies at this point in time, as the chart is still technically bullish and has been trending higher since, perhaps, mid-February.  I would wait for a futures hedge until roughly Father’s Day or mid-June. December Corn Options expire in 199 days.  5.00 Puts settled at 36 3/8 today, or $1,818.75 per contract, before your commissions and fees. That seems a bit costly, to me, but will give protection should the market turn lower.  If you would agree, consider selling a 4.50 Put to defray that cost a bit.  Today, the Dec 5.00/4.50 Put Spread settled at 23 ¼, or $1,162.50 per spread, before your commissions/fees.   Producers that are not averse to a little margin risk, may do well to consider selling a December 550 Call, lowering your out-of-pocket cost even further.  That call settled at 20 7/8 today, or $1,043.75, before commissions/fees. Those options traded together as a 3-way spread settled at 2 cents today, or $100 out-of-pocket, again before your commissions/fees.  The 3-way spread IS a marginable position, if the uptrend continues, with the current margins near $800.

December Corn (Weekly)

The weekly chart seems to show a market that has held trendline support (light blue) since making it’s low in August 2024. The recent breakout to new highs for the past 2 years accelerated last week.  Oddly enough, while the market was rallying last week, the 5- and 10-week moving averages (blue/red) made a bearish crossover.  I understand that they are lagging indicators, by their nature, but I think that was worth a mention.  Currently, both of those averages are in a bearish configuration, and are offering potential support near 4.87.  And they are still pointing higher.  If the price strength continues, those averages could turn back to a bullish configuration in short order.  I would look for potential resistance near the November 2024 high of 5.12 ½.  There are still 3 trading days left in the week, but at the moment, I don’t think the current weekly bar looks friendly.  Usually, when the Corn market has a long “wick” to the upside but is closing in the lower half of the bar, that signals some resistance.   Would you agree? 

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Jefferson Fosse  Walsh Trading

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