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Cattle futures surged early with June Live Cattle making a new all-time high price for the lead contract at 256.625 and August Feeder Cattle making a new high for the up move for the lead contact at 379.45. The rally couldn’t be sustained and price crept lower before crashing to session lows by the end of the day. June Cattle fell to the low at 252.75 and settled near the low at 253.00. It created an outside day down candle with the down move. August Feeder Cattle followed and broke down to its low at 371.95 and it settled close to the low at 372.175. Feeder Cattle came close to an outside day down, stopping just above the Thursday low, but still putting in a reversal candle. Record prices and an upcoming weekend saw traders take some profits and put the daily charts in a negative position while the weekly charts still look strong in my opinion. There was some talk that the packers put out they will be reducing slaughter as their losses mount as current low Cutouts and higher cash cattle prices don’t mix. With that rumor out there; profit taking took hold and didn’t stop until the session ended. Meanwhile the slaughter number for this week was the largest in several weeks… go figure!! … If the rumor is true, this would put the retail industry on notice and likely tick off the consumer as we are now moving into grilling season and the prime beef eating time period. Do you really want to anger the consumer… Take your lumps just like you forced the consumer and producer to do during your perfect use of the supply chain during your heyday of profit engineering during times of strife…. You have a responsibility to provide beef to the market and limiting supply will only hurt the business in the long run if the rumor is true. This week was a great week for the producer with the packer going hog wild out of the gate on Monday. It surprised many and they were willing to sit back and let the packer take price higher. And higher they did. Not only did the spot month make new all-time highs, it was a new high for any futures contract. The Lead contract kept going up until it failed on Friday and so did cash prices. Live Cattle peaked at 258.00 on the mandatory report for Wednesday’s trade and dressed cattle peaked at 400.00, also a new all-time high. This was accomplished in April. What will we see as we get into the seasonal retail buying of beef and the packer needing to slaughter cattle to meet their order commitments despite the rumors to meet demand as we move to the prime beef eating season. All you heard early this week was where is cattle I need to buy cattle and can’t find any? Well, they found cattle…. At all-time high prices. We’ll see!... August Feeder Cattle opened lower and rallied to a new high for the up move. The rally tested resistance at 378.45. It turned lower and broke down, pushing through support at 375.075 and testing the Thursday low at 371.925. If Feeder Cattle can hold settlement, we may see price revisit resistance at 375.075. Resistance then comes in at 378.45. A failure from settlement can take price lower and test support 369.375. Support then comes in at the rising 21-DMA now at 368.025. June Live Cattle opened lower and rallied to a new all-time high. The rally stalled and price took out the recent prior new all-time high at 255.975 and then the recent prior all-time high at 253.75. A common theme right… Settlement was below support. A failure from the low could see price test support at the recent prior all-time high at 252.00. Support then comes in at the recent prior all-time high at 249.925. If Live Cattle can hold settlement, it could consolidate within the Friday range.
The Feeder Cattle Index released Friday increased and is at 374.03 as of 04/30/2026 settlement.
Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts decreased 0.41 to 389.11 and select decreased 1.12 to 387.05. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 2.06 and the load count was 57.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 90,000, which is below last week’s 93,000 and above last year’s 89,843. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 10,000, which is below last week’s 11,000 and above last year’s 6,371. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 534,000, which is above last week’s 529,000 and below last year’s 562,668.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states Thus far Friday, negotiated cash trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all major feeding regions. The last established market in the Texas Panhandle was Wednesday with live purchases at 256.00. The last established market in Kansas was Wednesday with live purchases at 256.00. The last established market in Nebraska was Wednesday with live purchases at 257.00 and dressed purchases at 400.00. The last established market in the Western Cornbelt was Wednesday with live purchases from mostly 255.00-257.00 and dressed purchases at 400.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 250.00 – 258.00 and from 392.00 – 400.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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888.391.7894
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