Shootin' the Bull about skating on thin ice

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

5/01/2026

Live Cattle:

In my opinion, this will be one of the easier comments to write.  All industry participants spread themselves thinner in projected negative margins between sectors traded, as spreads between beef and cattle widened, and from weight class to weight class.  Some light weight cattle are bringing nearly the same price as fats today. This week's price action in cash, and increase in open interest in fat cattle, leads me to believe a lot more producers and futures traders are skating on thin ice.  Friday's price action produced the best basis spread this year, highest futures price in history, and new contract highs per respective contract month, for which to manage the risk you are assuming. It could get better, but not sure by how much.  With beef no higher, and more features on cuts this week, suggest it is becoming more difficult to push the higher price on to the consumer.  I believe this week's price action checked the box on every old adage there is about a market topping. Even my shortened comments this week should be a clue as well. 

Outside of the cattle, inputs were higher as well with corn pushing through the 5 handle and wheat now in a bull market.  All of the energy markets were higher than last Friday's close, even with them down sharply on Friday's trade.  Retail gasoline prices are anticipated to rise sharply.  Interest rates have climbed a little to.  The Fed kept rates unchanged, but the stimulation continues to push more liquidity into the financial systems, furthering core inflation.  This comment is short and sweet as two polar opposites collide.  Those being, the bullishness of producers, based upon lesser inventory to work with and ample capacity for, and the business aspect of worsening projected margins and widening spreads between cattle and beef, for which beef prices are not in support of the higher cattle prices. 

“This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.