Shootin' the Bull about a lot of volatility

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

4/30/2026

Live Cattle:

Volatility was exceptional today.  A mixed close as well suggests some spreading taking place.  This may not be out of the ordinary considering how many new long and new short positions have been added over the past three trading days.  Of the only significance I can see from this is that new shorts, if producers, were able to market inventory deep into the future at an improved basis spread and new contract highs of futures.  The new longs own the top of the market with sole reliance upon someone else being willing to pay an even higher price.  Other than this, not much else changed today. 

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​Feeder Cattle:

Feeder cattle futures have had no increase of open interest, were as volatile as the fats today, with all months higher, and the index higher.  So, the desire to assume risk has apparently not faded, leading to expectations of widening projected negative margins.  As above, the basis spreads, and near proximity to contract highs of futures, produces the ability to market deep into the future, at near levels of today.  There should be no weeping or gnashing of teeth, if or when the top is made, simply due to the abilities afforded at the moment to curtail such. 

​​Corn:

​Beans were able to shrug off the lower trade.  Corn and wheat remained lower, but mostly off their lows. Wheat appears to have started a stair stepping pattern with KC leading a little over Chicago.  Corn couldn't quite make it to $5.00, but came to within a a quarter of a cent.  I anticipate corn, beans, and wheat to continue higher with each finding a time frame to take the lead.  Weather will start to be the most important factor as the crop goes in the ground. 

Energy:​

Energy continued higher through the night, but ended mixed with gasoline still higher, diesel just slightly lower and crude down the most.  I anticipate energy to continue higher with expectations of a ground mission in the middle east.  Remember that there is no shortage of oil, just disruptions of production in some areas, and transportation in others.  When or if this issue is resolved, there will be hundreds of traders tasked with marketing months of production, deep into the future.  There goal will not to be to achieve what is available today, but only what can be had in the future, even at a sharply discounted price to today.  That is because it is possible that the current contract highs of the back months may be the highest priced to be achieved for the life of contract. Keep that in mind when viewing the discount to the back months of fat and feeder contracts.   

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Bonds:

Bonds are a couple of tics higher as I write this. I anticipate bonds to be resuming a down trend. All inflationary data was higher today. 

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​​​​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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