Wall Street Split on Coinbase Ahead of May 7 Earnings. Trade COIN With 2X Leverage

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Coinbase Global (COIN) has evolved from a crypto exchange into one of the most powerful platforms in the digital asset space. The company serves retail investors, institutional clients, and more than 150 government agencies. Coinbase is growing toward the "Everything Exchange" vision laid out by CEO Brian Armstrong, which aims to become a one-stop platform where users can trade every asset class, from crypto to equities to derivatives.

Investors appear to support this vision, and in 2025, Coinbase posted all-time highs across trading volume, subscription revenue, and user growth:

• Total trading volume reached $5.2 trillion, up 156% year-over-year
• Crypto trading market share doubled to 6.4%, its highest level ever
• Subscription and services revenue hit $2.8 billion, 5.5x larger than at the prior cycle peak in 2021
• 12 products now each generate more than $100 million in annualized revenue

While Coinbase has seen significant growth, there are several headwinds that could impact their next earnings release in May.

Crypto prices retreated sharply in the first months of 2026 after a late-2025 surge, which directly impacts Coinbase's transaction-based revenue. Coinbase fell as much as 69% from its 52-week high before recovering, and it has continued to trade with significant volatility as the market prices in an uneven near-term earnings picture alongside a more compelling long-term platform narrative. Finally, competition from rivals such as Gemini Space Station, Inc. (GEMI), Bullish (BLSH), and Kraken is intensifying.

Analysts' consensus estimate for Q1 has been recently revised down 10.8%, reflecting weaker-than-expected trading volumes in February and March.

However, there is a silver lining. Coinbase is up over 50% from its 52-week low as crypto inflows have returned and several major platform developments have taken shape.

Coinbase reports Q1 2026 results on May 7 after the close. With a 60-month beta* of 3.60, the stock tends to amplify broader market moves by more than three times, making price swings around earnings significant in either direction. The Direxion Daily COIN Bull 2X ETF (CONX) offers traders 200% daily leveraged exposure to COIN stock, seeking to capitalize on expected volatility.

The Street Sees Upside, With Competition as the Key Risk

Wall Street expects Coinbase to report earnings of $0.36 per share for Q1 2026, compared to $1.94 in the same quarter last year. Revenue consensus stands at approximately $1.5 billion, a year-over-year decline of roughly 26%. Both figures reflect a quarter shaped by lower crypto prices and softer trading activity.

Although Coinbase beat in Q1 by 4.86% and in Q3 by 39.81%, it missed in Q2 by 89.92% and in Q4 by 28.26%. The full-year 2026 consensus stands at $2.81 per share, and analysts project $3.72 for 2027, representing roughly 32% growth from the prior year. Those estimates are based on the expectation that crypto trading activity accelerates in the second half of the year.

Of 34 analysts covering COIN, the consensus is a Moderate Buy. The mean 12-month price target implies roughly 14% upside from current levels, with estimates ranging from $120 to $400.

Coinbase currently ranks third globally in crypto spot trading volume behind Binance and Bybit, and new publicly traded rivals are giving investors direct alternatives. Whether the Everything Exchange strategy can offset that pressure by expanding Coinbase's total addressable market is a central debate among analysts heading into May 7.

Trading COIN Earnings With 2X Daily Leverage

The Direxion Daily COIN Bull 2X ETF (CONX) seeks 200% of the daily performance of Coinbase Global common stock, before fees and expenses.

• When COIN rises 1%, CONX targets a 2% gain (before fees)
• When COIN falls 1%, CONX aims for a 2% decline (before fees)
• No need to maintain margin collateral

CONX resets its leverage exposure daily. The 2X target applies to single-day price movements, and holding the fund beyond a single day introduces compounding effects. It is designed for short-term tactical trading, not long-term holds.

Will COIN Continue to Recover?

Coinbase enters May 7 with the broader crypto market showing signs of recovery and the Everything Exchange strategy producing tangible results. Several developments are worth watching as the May 7 date approaches:

• Crypto funds saw $1.37 billion in net inflows during the week ending April 17, the strongest weekly total since early January, suggesting institutional positioning in the space is rebuilding.
• Coinbase and Bybit announced a collaboration on the tokenization, custody, and distribution of U.S. stocks, including pre-IPO names, expanding Coinbase's reach into Bybit's global customer base in Asia and the Middle East.
• Charles Schwab announced plans to roll out direct Bitcoin and Ethereum trading to its client base
• Stablecoin legislation continues to advance in Congress, serving as a major catalyst for USDC-related revenue growth.

What May 7 will clarify is whether Q1 results and Q2 guidance confirm that the platform is gaining ground as the crypto cycle turns, or whether the near-term headwinds are taking longer to resolve than the market expects.

The Direxion Daily COIN Bull 2X ETF (CONX) offers a way to act on a directional view ahead of that outcome without managing a margin account. For those with bullish conviction on Coinbase's Q1 results and the broader crypto recovery, CONX provides 200% daily leveraged exposure in a single trade.

Beta: Beta is a widely used indicator of a stock's price volatility or the level of risk relative to the broader market.

Investing in the funds involves a high degree of risk. Unlike traditional ETFs, or even other leveraged and/or inverse ETFs, these leveraged and/or inverse single-stock ETFs track the price of a single stock rather than an index, eliminating the benefits of diversification. Leveraged and inverse ETFs pursue daily leveraged investment objectives, which means they are riskier than alternatives which do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying stock’s performance over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. The Funds will lose money if the underlying stock’s performance is flat, and it is possible that the Bull Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance increases, and the Bear Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance decreases, over a period longer than a single day. Investing in the Funds is not equivalent to investing directly in COIN.

An investor should carefully consider a Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the Direxion Shares. To obtain a Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit our website at direxion.com. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing.

Coinbase Global, Inc. Investing Risk — COIN faces risks associated with: significant fluctuations in operating results; revenue dependencies on the price of crypto assets and volume of transactions on its platform; revenues may be concentrated on a limited number of crypto assets; overall demand for crypto assets; interest rate fluctuations; possible limitations on the development and growth of crypto assets, among other risks.

Financials Sector Risk — Financial companies may be materially impacted by many factors, including but not limited to, government regulations, economic conditions, credit rating downgrades, changes in interest rates and decreased liquidity in credit markets.

Crypto Industry Investing Risk — Companies in the crypto industry are subject to various risks, including the inability to develop digital asset applications or to capitalize on those applications, theft, loss, or destruction of cryptographic keys, the possibility that digital asset technologies may never be fully implemented, cybersecurity risk, conflicting intellectual property claims, and inconsistent and changing regulations.

Distributor: ALPS Distributors, Inc.

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