Highwoods Properties Reports Tuesday With Sun Belt Leasing Momentum Under Scrutiny

Highwoods Properties (HIW) reports first-quarter 2026 earnings after market close on April 28, 2026, with analysts expecting the office REIT to deliver $0.84 per share—a modest improvement from the year-ago quarter. The central question: can management sustain the positive momentum from Q4's strong beat, or will the ongoing challenges in office real estate fundamentals weigh on results? With the stock trading well below its 200-day moving average and analyst sentiment recently improving, this report will test whether HIW's operational execution can overcome broader sector headwinds.

Part 1: Earnings Preview

Highwoods Properties is a real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in owning, developing, and leasing Class A office properties across high-growth Sun Belt markets. The company's portfolio spans major business districts in cities like Atlanta, Nashville, and Raleigh, positioning it to benefit from migration trends and corporate relocations to the Southeast.

For Q1 2026, analysts expect HIW to report $0.84 per share when results are released after the close on April 28, 2026. The company most recently reported $0.90 per share for Q4 2025, beating estimates by 7.14%. The consensus for the upcoming quarter represents 1.20% growth compared to the $0.83 reported in Q1 2025, suggesting analysts anticipate modest year-over-year improvement despite challenging office market conditions.

Three key themes define this earnings story:

Leasing Momentum and Occupancy Trends: Investors will scrutinize leasing activity and occupancy rates as the primary indicators of demand for office space in HIW's Sun Belt markets. With hybrid work models still evolving and many companies reassessing their real estate footprints, any signs of stabilization or improvement in these metrics would be viewed positively. Management's commentary on tenant retention, new lease signings, and the pipeline of prospective tenants will be critical.

Same-Store NOI Growth: Net operating income from the existing portfolio remains the core driver of REIT performance. Analysts will focus on whether HIW can deliver positive same-store NOI growth through a combination of rental rate increases on lease renewals and effective cost management. Given the competitive leasing environment, the spread between expiring rents and new lease rates will be closely watched.

Balance Sheet Strength and Capital Allocation: With interest rates remaining elevated and refinancing needs on the horizon for many REITs, HIW's debt maturity schedule, liquidity position, and cost of capital will be under scrutiny. Investors want to see management maintaining financial flexibility while continuing to fund development projects and return capital to shareholders through dividends.

Analyst commentary ahead of the release reflects cautious optimism. While the office sector faces structural headwinds, HIW's focus on high-quality assets in growing markets provides some insulation. Recent upgrades in analyst sentiment suggest the market may be warming to the stock's valuation at current levels, though the consensus remains firmly in Hold territory with a mean price target of $26.55.

Part 2: Historical Earnings Performance

Highwoods Properties has demonstrated consistent ability to exceed analyst expectations over the past year. The company beat estimates in three of the last four quarters, with surprises ranging from meeting expectations (unchanged in Q3 2025) to a substantial 7.14% beat in the most recent Q4 2025 report. The Q4 result of $0.90 versus the $0.84 estimate marked the strongest outperformance in this period.

Looking at the progression, HIW reported $0.83 in Q1 2025 (1.22% beat), $0.89 in Q2 2025 (4.71% beat), $0.86 in Q3 2025 (in line), and $0.90 in Q4 2025 (7.14% beat). The pattern shows improving execution through the year, with the company building momentum into year-end. The sequential increase from $0.83 to $0.90 over the course of 2025 suggests operational improvements took hold as the year progressed.

This track record of beats—particularly the acceleration in the magnitude of surprises from Q2 through Q4—indicates management has been successfully navigating the challenging office REIT environment. The consistency of outperformance should give investors some confidence heading into Q1 2026, though the $0.84 consensus represents a sequential decline from Q4's strong $0.90 result, reflecting typical seasonal patterns in the REIT sector.

Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

Highwoods Properties reports after market close, meaning Day 0 captures anticipatory trading before results are released, while Day +1 reflects the market's first full session to digest the actual numbers.

The historical price behavior around HIW earnings reveals significant volatility, with the stock averaging an absolute move of 3.32% on Day +1 (the first trading session after results) and an intraday range of 5.77%. This volatility has been particularly pronounced in recent quarters—the most recent Q4 2025 report triggered a sharp 10.16% decline on Day +1 despite the company beating estimates by 7.14%, suggesting investors were disappointed by guidance or other forward-looking commentary.

The pattern shows Day 0 moves are relatively muted (averaging 1.31%), which makes sense given the after-close timing, but Day +1 reactions have been substantial and predominantly negative. Over the past eight quarters, five of the Day +1 moves were declines, including three drops exceeding 3.5%. Even when HIW beat estimates in Q2 2025 by 4.71%, the stock fell 4.03% the following day. This disconnect between earnings beats and negative price action suggests the market has been focused on forward guidance, occupancy trends, or broader sector concerns rather than backward-looking results.

Investors should prepare for meaningful volatility following this release. The historical average Day +1 range of 5.77% indicates the stock could easily swing several percentage points in either direction as the market digests not just the Q1 numbers but management's outlook for the remainder of 2026.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing an expected move of 6.67% through the May 15 expiration (18 days out), which aligns closely with the historical average Day +1 range of 5.77%. This suggests options traders are anticipating typical post-earnings volatility rather than an outsized reaction, though the implied move is roughly double the average Day +1 absolute move of 3.32%, indicating the market is pricing in the possibility of a significant directional move in either direction.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Analyst sentiment on Highwoods Properties currently stands at 3.36 on the 5-point scale, placing the consensus firmly in Hold territory but with a slight bullish lean. The $26.55 mean price target implies approximately 10% upside from the current price of $24.08, suggesting analysts see modest appreciation potential but not enough to warrant aggressive buying.

The breakdown shows 2 Strong Buy ratings, 0 Moderate Buys, 9 Holds, 0 Moderate Sells, and 0 Strong Sells among the 11 analysts covering the stock. This distribution reflects a cautious stance—the majority are on the sidelines with Hold recommendations, while a small minority sees compelling value at current levels. The price target range spans from $23.00 (low) to $34.00 (high), indicating meaningful disagreement about the stock's fair value, with the high-end estimate suggesting potential upside of over 40% for bulls.

Sentiment has improved over the past month, with the average recommendation moving from 3.18 to 3.36 and the Hold count increasing from 8 to 9 while one Strong Sell rating was removed. This shift suggests analysts are becoming less bearish on the stock, possibly reflecting improved visibility on office market fundamentals or valuation becoming more attractive after the stock's decline. The removal of the Strong Sell rating is particularly notable, indicating even the most pessimistic analyst has moderated their view.

The consensus appears to be that HIW is fairly valued at current levels with modest upside potential, but the lack of Strong Buy conviction from the majority of analysts suggests most are waiting for clearer evidence of sustained operational improvement before recommending aggressive accumulation.

Part 4: Technical Picture

The Barchart Technical Opinion currently shows a 40% Sell signal, representing a significant improvement from the 100% Sell reading one month ago and the 56% Sell signal from last week. This rapid shift toward neutral territory suggests the technical picture has been stabilizing as the stock has recovered from recent lows.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (Hold): Neutral signal indicates near-term momentum has stabilized after recent weakness
• Medium-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal suggests the intermediate-term trend remains under pressure
• Long-term (100% Sell): Strong sell signal reflects persistent weakness in the longer-term trend structure

The trend is characterized as Average strength with the Weakest direction, indicating the stock is in a transitional phase where downward momentum is losing steam but hasn't yet established a convincing upward trajectory. This setup suggests the technical environment is neither strongly supportive nor decisively bearish heading into earnings.

HIW is currently trading at $24.08, positioned above its 5-day ($23.85), 10-day ($23.60), 20-day ($22.66), and 50-day ($22.38) moving averages, indicating short-term momentum has turned positive. However, the stock remains below both its 100-day ($24.21) and 200-day ($27.12) moving averages, confirming the longer-term downtrend remains intact. The recent bounce off the 50-day moving average and climb above shorter-term averages suggests buyers have stepped in at lower levels, but the stock faces overhead resistance at the 100-day average just above current prices. The technical setup is cautiously constructive for earnings—the improving short-term momentum provides some support, but the stock's position well below its 200-day average and the weak long-term trend signal suggest any positive surprise will need to be substantial to trigger a sustained breakout above resistance levels.