Robinhood's Moment of Truth: Can April 28 Earnings Reverse the 2026 Selloff? Trade It With 2X Leverage

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Retail brokerage and financial services platform Robinhood Markets (HOOD) has built a massive and growing user base around commission-free trading in stocks, options, and crypto. They have steadily increased their market share, with estimates suggesting they control over 6% of the online trading industry by revenue and are on track to capture more in the coming years. 

Additionally, the company beat earnings estimates in all four quarters of 2025, and 24 analysts covering the stock currently maintain a Moderate Buy consensus with a mean 12-month price target of $105.73.

However, HOOD is also down significantly year-to-date, trading near the low end of the analyst target range heading into its April 28 earnings report. 

So what is driving the gap between that analyst conviction and the current price? 

The answer is likely a combination of decreased speculative trading and institutions lowering their price targets.

Robinhood's revenue is closely tied to trading activity, specifically transaction-based income from crypto and high-beta* equity trading. In the first quarter of 2026, softer crypto prices and a slowdown in speculative equity activity pressured revenue. 

Truist and Barclays have lowered their earnings estimates ahead of the upcoming report, citing February and March trading data showing lower volumes and dimmer short-term revenue expectations. Despite this adjustment, both firms continue to hold positive ratings on the stock.

Robinhood reports first-quarter 2026 results on April 28 after the close. With a 60-month beta of over 2.0, the stock tends to move nearly two and a half times as much as the broader market in either direction, making intraday price swings around earnings significant. The Direxion Daily HOOD Bull 2X ETF (HODU) offers 200% daily leveraged exposure to HOOD in a single ticker.

Will HOOD's Beat Streak Hold? Analysts are Cautiously Optimistic

Wall Street expects Robinhood to report earnings of $0.49 per share for Q1 2026, representing more than 32% growth from $0.37 per share in the same quarter last year. That follows four consecutive quarters of outperformance in 2025, with beats of 19.35%, 35.48%, 19.61%, and 4.76%. Whether that consistency holds when conditions were genuinely tougher in Q1 is the central question for April 28.

Looking further out, the full-year 2026 consensus stands at $2.16 per share, with 2027 projected at $2.66, representing 23% growth on a larger base. Truist, despite trimming near-term estimates, projects platform assets will grow by more than 20% annually over the next three years, well above the mid-single-digit industry average.

Of 24 analysts covering HOOD, the consensus is a Moderate Buy. The mean 12-month price target of $105.73 implies more than 15% upside from current levels. The high target is $165, and the low is $70, with the stock currently trading at the floor of that range.

Trading HOOD Into Earnings With 2X Daily Leverage

The Direxion Daily HOOD Bull 2X ETF (HODU) seeks 200% of the daily performance of Robinhood Markets common stock, before fees and expenses.

• When HOOD rises 1%, HODU targets a 2% gain (before fees)
• When HOOD falls 1%, HODU aims for a 2% decline (before fees)
• No need to maintain margin collateral

HODU resets its leverage exposure daily. The 2X target applies to single-day price movements, and holding the fund beyond a single day introduces compounding effects. It is designed for short-term tactical trading, not long-term holds.

Trade Robinhood's Biggest Earnings Event of 2026

Robinhood enters April 28 with a share price that has pulled back sharply from its highs despite a consistent track record of beating estimates. The near-term revenue pressure from softer crypto and equity trading is real and well-understood. What April 28 will clarify is whether Q1 results and Q2 guidance signal that those headwinds are fading or persisting.

As we move further into 2026, Robinhood is positioned to capitalize on three major catalysts that could drive significant growth: 

1. Robinhood was selected as the brokerage for the government's Trump Accounts program, a new tax-advantaged account for U.S. residents under 18 that creates a new retail account pipeline. 
2. The anticipated SpaceX IPO, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and what the CFO of SpaceX has described as the largest retail allocation in IPO history, could drive a meaningful surge in trading volume on the platform.
3. PDT Rule Elimination: HOOD shares surged following the April 14th SEC announcement to eliminate the $25,000 pattern day-trading minimum; this removal of a 25-year-old retail barrier is expected to significantly increase trading frequency and engagement on the platform.

The Direxion Daily HOOD Bull 2X ETF (HODU) offers a way to act on a directional view on that outcome without managing margin. For those with bullish conviction, HODU provides 200% daily leveraged exposure in a single trade.

*Beta: Beta is a widely used indicator of a stock's price volatility or the level of risk relative to the broader market.

The Funds do not seek to achieve their stated investment objective for a period of time different than a trading day. Investing in a Direxion Shares ETF may be more volatile than investing in broadly diversified funds. The use of leverage by the Fund increases the risk to the Fund. The Direxion Shares ETFs are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by sophisticated investors who understand leverage risk and the consequences of seeking daily leveraged investment results and intend to actively monitor and manage their investment.  

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Robinhood Markets, Inc. Investing Risk – Robinhood Markets, Inc. shares face risks associated with: growth may be difficult to maintain; limited operation experience at current scale; results of operations fluctuate; changes in transaction-based revenue would have an adverse impact; direct and indirect exposure to fluctuating interest rates; failure to comply with “best execution” requirements; ability to obtain adequate capital and financing; harm of brand and reputation; among other risks.

Financials Sector Risk — Financial companies may be materially impacted by many factors, including but not limited to, government regulations, economic conditions, credit rating downgrades, changes in interest rates and decreased liquidity in credit markets.

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