March NY world sugar #11 (SBH23) on Wednesday closed up +0.36 (+1.73%), and March London white sugar #5 (SWH23) closed up +10.50 (+1.88%).
Sugar prices Wednesday posted moderate gains and garnered support from a rally of more than +1% in crude oil. Â Higher crude prices benefit ethanol and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, thus curbing sugar supplies.
Last Wednesday, NY sugar posted a 6-year high, and London sugar posted a 4-3/4 month high, on reduced sugar output and smaller sugar exports from India.  Last Tuesday, the ISMA cut its 2022/23 India sugar production estimate to 34 MMT from an Oct estimate of 36.5 MMT and cut its India 2022/23 sugar export estimate to 6.1 MMT from an Oct forecast of 9 MMT.  In addition, the  ISMA said that it sees India's sugar mills diverting 4.5-5.0 MMT of sugar to ethanol production in 2022/23.
Reduced sugar production in Europe is a supportive factor for sugar prices. Â The European Association of Sugar Manufacturers on Dec 8 forecasted that EU 2022/23 sugar output would fall -7% y/y to 15.5 MMT.
A bearish factor for sugar was last Thursday's report from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) that showed India's 2022/23 sugar output from Oct-Jan was up +3.4% y/y at 19.35 MMT. Â India is the world's second-largest sugar producer. Â Also, the Thai Sugar Mills Corp last Wednesday projected Thailand's 2022/23 sugar production would climb +14% y/y to 11.55 MMT. Â However, Thailand's 2022/23 sugar exports are projected to decline -17.7% y/y to 9.05 MMT. Â Thailand is the world's second-largest sugar exporter. Â
A negative factor for sugar was the Jan 11 report from Unica that showed Brazil's 2022/23 sugar production through December rose +4.4% y/y to 33.462 MMT. Â Brazil is the biggest sugar producer in the world. Â
In a bearish factor, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) on Nov 22 projected that global 2022/23 sugar production would climb +5.5% y/y to a record high of 182.1 MMT. Â Also, ISO projected that the 2022/23 global sugar market would be in a surplus of +6.2 MMT.
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On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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