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Cattle futures started the week strong, rallying to all-time high prices in the Live Cattle market and taking out previous highs in the Feeder Market but unable to make new all-time highs. The rally in the June Live Cattle saw price peak at 252.00 on Tuesday, making it the all-time high price for the lead contract, taking out last week’s all-time high price. The following two days saw price top just below this high at 251.90. This was a triple top and a Tweezer Top formation plus a Bearish Engulfing candle on Thursday. The Friday open saw price attempt to rally and fail at the previous all-time high, with the Friday high at 248.375. May Feeder Cattle surged past the previous rally high at 373.60 for the lead contract, reaching 377.575 on Tuesday before pulling back and forming a bearish candle called a Shooting Star candle. The next day saw a Bearish Engulfing Candle form on a breakdown to support. Thursday saw a strong open that retraced most of the breakdown candle. The market quickly reversed and took out support. Friday saw a strong open take May Feeders to its high at 369.25 which was just below resistance at 369.375 and the 13-DMA at 369.525. With the Cattle on Feed report due after the session, the weight of these technical bearish signals was too much for the market to bear and both markets crashed with the Feeders going down limit in the process. There weren’t any rumors going around except maybe there was a fear that Secretary Rollins, who was in Texas for the ground breaking celebration of the Screwworm Fly production facility would announce the opening of the border with Mexico. She didn’t by the way… But, hey trades, accept this… the border with Mexico will open sooner or later. The Texan cattle industry relies on Mexican cattle. Outside businesses rely on the Texan cattle industry. The cattle industry and therefore outside businesses have suffered greatly with the Mexican cattle. She has stated she will open the border at some point. It will not in my opinion be devasting to cattle prices. She has stated the opening likely will occur in Arizona which is the furthest from the nearest screwworm appearance. She has stated this… She also said it would be a limited open and only a trickle of cattle coming in. We are also seeing Mexico develop their feeding industry. Some powers that be in Mexico would prefer the border to remain closed because they are able to take advantage of the Mexican rancher and making bank with the border shutdown. It has also been said that a border re-open would not see cattle coming in right away because the USDA would need time to get everything set up to receive cattle. Also, Mexicans may or may not trust the situation and could be reluctant to haul cattle over there until they are comfortable with the process. What areas would be allowed to send cattle to the US? There seems to be a lot of question marks and a lot of decisions to be made. Why panic when you know cattle will come in limited numbers? Slaughter remains low as the cutout continues to drift. The packer is in trouble and producers need higher prices. The retailer has kept on raising beef prices to the consumer as cutouts has drifted. The consumer continues to buy beef at the higher prices. The retailer is now the one with the most to lose as the grilling season nears, in my opinion. June Live Cattle broke down to 243.025 which tested support at the rising 21-DMA now at 242.725. The market surged and recovered most of its losses to settle near the high at 247.35. May Feeder Cattle reached its limit at the low price of 357.85. It also came roaring back and settled in the upper end of the trading range at 365.275. The Feeder breakdown took price through support at the rising 21-DMA now at 363.525 and the 50-DMA now at 360.775 plus the key level at 358.875. The ensuing rally put prices above these critical levels. Settlement was just under the key level at 365.675. The Cattle on Feed report was neutral to positive with the actuals near the estimates, but below the averages for the on Feed and placements and showing more marketings than expected. The fundamentals are still positive as we are coming into grilling season. Could this breakdown to these critical levels have satisfied the technical weakness from this week’s earlier trade? We’ll see!... If May Feeder Cattle can retake the key level at 365.675, it could test resistance at 369.375. Resistance then comes in at 375.075. A failure from settlement has support at the rising 21-DMA and then 363.00. Support then comes in at the 50-DMA. If Live Cattle can hold settlement, it could test at 248.30 and the rising 8-DMA at 248.55. Resistance then comes in at 249.95. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 246.975. Support then comes in at rising 21-DMA.
The Feeder Cattle Index released Friday decreased 1.42 and is at 377.67 as of 04/16/2026 settlement.
Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts decreased 0.51to 381.06 and select decreased 1.88 to 376.60. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 4.46 and the load count was 92.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 77,000, which is below last week’s 83,000 and last year’s 90,821. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 8,000, which is above last week’s 4,000 and below last year’s 10,519. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 514,000, which is above last week’s 512,000 and below last year’s 577,626.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been moderate on good demand in all major feeding regions. Compared to Thursday in the Texas Panhandle, live purchases have been steady to 1.00 lower at 248.00. Compared to Thursday in Kanas, live purchases have been steady at 248.00. Compared to Thursday in Nebraska, live purchases have been steady to 1.00 lower from 248.00- 249.00, mostly 248.00, and dressed purchases have been steady at 388.00. Compared to Thursday in the Western Cornbelt, live purchases have been steady at 248.00 and dressed purchases have been steady at 388.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 246.00 – 249.00 and from 385.00 – 392.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
United States Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, 2026. The inventory was 1 percent below April 1, 2025. The inventory included 7.26 million steers and steer calves, down slightly from the previous year. This group accounted for 63 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.32 million head, down 1 percent from 2025.
Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.71 million head, 7 percent below 2025. Net placements were 1.66 million head. Placements were the second lowest for March since the series began in 1996. During March, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 320,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 250,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 435,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 474,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 170,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 60,000 head.
Marketings of fed cattle during March totaled 1.63 million head, 6 percent below 2025. Marketings were the second lowest for March since the series began in 1996.
Other disappearance totaled 50,000 head during March, 9 percent below 2025.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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