Sugar Posts Moderate Gains on Lower EU Sugar Output

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH23) on Thursday closed up +0.20 (+1.03%), and March London white sugar #5 (SWH23) closed up +3.50 (+0.65%).

Sugar prices Thursday posted moderate gains.  Signs of smaller sugar production in Europe may force European sugar and food manufacturers to import sugar, leading to smaller global supplies.  The European Association of Sugar Manufacturers forecasted that EU 2022/23 sugar output will fall -7% y/y to 15.5 MMT.

Weakness in crude oil is limiting gains in sugar.  Crude prices (CLF23) on Thursday fell to a 1-year low,  which undercuts ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol, thus boosting sugar supplies.

Sugar prices were undercut last Thursday when StoneX boosted its global 2022/23 sugar surplus estimate to 5.2 MMT from a Sep estimate of 3.9 MMT.  StoneX also predicts Brazil's 2023/24 Center South sugar production will climb +5.2% y/y to 35.6 MMT.

Increased sugar production in Brazil is bearish for prices after Unica reported Nov 25 that Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the 2022/23 marketing year through mid-November rose +0.3% y/y to 31.966 MMT.  Also, the Organization of Cane Producers Association in Brazil forecasted last Monday that Brazil's sugar output in 2022/23 at 36.9 million metric tons due to favorable weather and that production would reach 37.2 million metric tons in 2023/24.

Higher sugar output in India is bearish for prices.  On Oct 24, the India Sugar Mills Association ISMA forecasted that India's 2022/23 sugar production (Oct 1-Sep 30) would climb +2% y/y to 36.5 MMT as Indian farmers boosted their planted cane acreage by +5.4% y/y to 5.6 mln hectares.  In 2021/22, India's sugar production rose +2.9% y/y to 35.8 MMT.  Also, robust sugar exports from India are bearish for prices after India 2021/22 sugar exports jumped +57% y/y to a record 11 MMT.  Last Friday, (ISMA) reported that India's Oct-Nov sugar production rose +1.5% y/y to 4.79 MMT.

In a bearish factor, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) on Nov 22 projected that global 2022/23 sugar production would climb +5.5% y/y to a record high of 182.1 MMT.  Also, ISO projected that the 2022/23 global sugar market would be in a surplus of +6.2 MMT.

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