2 Energy Stocks That Are Quietly Winning This Crisis

The global oil market is in turmoil as the Iran war enters its sixth week. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted critical supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz, which controls 20% of the world’s oil flow. This supply shock has pushed crude prices above $100 per barrel, with some estimates suggesting prices could spike even higher if disruptions persist.

Energy stocks like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are winning this crisis as higher oil prices translate directly into stronger profits. But are these two stocks a better investment even in a post-war world?

Energy Stock #1: Exxon Mobil (XOM)

Valued at $680.7 billion by market capitalization, Exxon Mobil is one of the world’s largest integrated energy companies, producing oil and gas as well as chemicals. As oil prices increase, Exxon’s upstream operations generate higher profits, while its refining and chemical divisions provide steady cash flow support. This diversification explains why Exxon has been one of the biggest winners in the current crisis, benefiting from both rising prices and operational stability.

XOM stock has surged 35% year-to-date (YTD), outperforming the broader market and the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE). 

Exxon is also a dividend stock with a forward yield of 2.56%. Its strong focus on low-cost production and disciplined capital allocation has enabled it to maintain a payout ratio of 56.5%. Exxon Mobil has raised dividends for 43 consecutive years, including its recent dividend hike of 4%, earning it the title of Dividend Aristocrat.

The company has significantly strengthened its portfolio with high-return assets in regions like the Permian Basin and Guyana, as well as in fields like LNG, driving record production of 4.7 million barrels per day. The company's emphasis on low-cost assets and tech-driven efficiency has increased earnings power and positioned Exxon to benefit significantly from rising oil prices amid the current crisis.

Exxon has held a strong balance sheet, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13 and a cash balance of $10.7 billion at the end of 2025. The firm paid out $17.2 billion in dividends and $20 billion in share repurchases. Even if oil prices fall after the Iran war, Exxon stands out as a reliable long-term investment due to its resilience and strong cash flow generation.

Overall, analysts rate XOM stock as a consensus “Moderate Buy.” Of the 28 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it a “Strong Buy,” one has a “Moderate Buy," 11 rate it a “Hold,” and two analysts have a “Strong Sell" rating. XOM stock has surpassed the average target price of $158.15. The highest target price of $195 suggests potential upside of 20% over the next 12 months.

Energy Stock #2: Chevron (CVX)

Valued at $396.8 billion by market cap, Chevron is a global energy company that explores, produces, and refines oil and natural gas. Chevron also has a track record of 39 years of consecutive dividend increases, offering a forward yield of 3.6%. CVX stock has surged 32% YTD, outperforming the overall market.

Despite oil prices being down nearly 15% at one point in 2025, the company still delivered more than 35% growth in adjusted free cash flow, supported by cost efficiencies and a diversified portfolio with a capital expenditure breakeven below $50 Brent. In 2025, the company generated adjusted free cash flow of $4.2 billion, ending the year with a cash balance of $6.3 billion and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21. This sturdy cash balance enabled Chevron to pay dividends totalling $12.8 billion and repurchase shares worth $12.1 billion. 

The company has ramped up output across key assets like the Permian Basin, Tengiz, and the Gulf of Mexico, while simultaneously expanding high-margin offshore and overseas projects. Its balanced portfolio supports stable earnings and sustainable dividend payouts. The ongoing conflict could act as a catalyst driving meaningful increases in free cash flow and potentially accelerate buybacks and dividends. Even in a post-war scenario with lower oil prices, Chevron remains a dependable long-term investment, particularly for income-focused investors.

On Wall Street, Chevron stock has earned a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating. Of the 27 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it a “Strong Buy,” three have a “Moderate Buy,” seven rate it a “Hold,” and one analyst has a “Strong Sell" rating. The average target price of $205.88 offers just 2% potential upside from current levels, while the high price target of $242 points to a possible 20% gain.