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April Lean Hogs gap opened lower, ticked to the high of the day at 97.625 and then broke down to the low of the day at 96.25. It drifted the rest of the session and settled in the lower end of the range at 96.725. The gap is from today’s high to the Friday low at 97.875. Futures are reeling after failing to overcome resistance at 100.075 last week peeking at 99.80 and forming a Tweezer Top formation that is considered bearish. The Monday breakdown took price below support at 97.30 and pushed past the rising 8 and 13-DMA’s now at 97.175 and 96.85 respectively. The Lean Hog Index has been creeping higher but is well below the futures price and the Pork Cutout Index has struggled recently unable to build upon its recovery off its low 90’s pullback, staying in the mid-90s with the one faltering when it broached the 99 handle. This has created issues for the futures market as expectations were for a strong cutout as exports have been relatively strong and consumer demand has been stable. The industry has been dealing with a widespread explosion of the PRRS disease which will put supply constraints on the marketplace. This has helped futures in my opinion but the inability for cutouts to surge could lead to long liquidation and send prices back to the low end of the expanded trading range the April contract finds itself. The low of the range is at 94.65. We’ll see!... If price can hold settlement, we could see a test of resistance at 97.30. Resistance then comes in at 98.475. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 95.30. Support then comes in at the low of the trading range and then 93.50.
The Pork Cutout Index was unchanged and is at 95.11 as of 02/06/2026.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 86.57 as of 02/05/2026.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 490,000, which is above last week’s 444,000 and last year’s 489,141.
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Ben DiCostanzo
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