E-minis Rebound on Ceasefire Framework Hopes, Bulls Eye Follow-Through

E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 6603.75, down 18.50 on Friday and up 191.50 on the week

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24,129.75, down 88.25 on Friday and 801.25 on the week

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are higher from Friday’s holiday activity, and retesting Thursday’s official close on reports that the U.S. and Iran have received a framework to end the conflict. Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey formulated a two-step plan that includes an immediate ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, followed by 15 to 20 days to negotiate a broader settlement.

Through last Thursday, markets had a risk-on undertone, and indices exuded a desire to go higher, shaking off President Trump’s aggressive comments on Wednesday night. Friday’s shortened session saw the release of Nonfarm Payroll that reined in the tape slightly. Despite surprisingly strong job growth in March at 178k versus 65k, the February data was revised lower by 41k jobs, to a loss of 133k. Additionally, Wage Growth came in light at +0.2% m/m, versus +0.3% expected, and 3.5% y/y, versus 3.7%. Although the headline Unemployment Rate was 4.3%, down from 4.4%, the Participation Rate fell by one-tenth, and the U6 Unemployment Rate, also known as the underemployed rate, rose by one-tenth to 8.0%. Treasuries sold off on this read Friday morning while indices peeled back slightly, but we do not see it as very hawkish. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures opened lower last night following this data and harsh comments from President Trump on Truth Social over the weekend. However, positive momentum has again buoyed risk sentiment ahead of the U.S. open.

E-mini NQ futures have extended the range to the highest since before the intraday open on March 26th, while the E-mini S&P futures are trading below Thursday’s spike high of 6653.75. As noted above, we do see a shift in the market to a risk-on undertone and a desire to find good news. This often comes on the heels of extreme sentiment and deleveraging. For now, we believe this is leading the tape, but we must see a constructive trade through the first hour. This ultimately starts with responding to first key support in the case of any selling, with that coming in at 6598-6604.75 in the E-mini S&P and overall holding above our Pivot and point of balance at……

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