Nat-Gas Prices Sink on Possible Delay of U.S. Nat-Gas Exports

Dec Nymex natural gas (NGZ22) on Tuesday closed down -0.806 (-11.61%).

Dec nat-gas Tuesday sold off sharply on concern U.S. nat-gas exports will be delayed, which would cause a build up of inventories.  The Freeport LNG export terminal was knocked offline by an explosion on June 8.  Last month, the terminal said tentatively it would reopen on Nov 21.  The Freeport terminal normally accounts for about 20% of all U.S. nat-gas exports and receives about 2 bcf, or 2.5%, of the output from the lower 48 U.S. states.

Dec nat-gas on Monday rallied to a 1-1/2 month high on the outlook for colder U.S. temperatures to engulf the country, which would boost heating demand for nat-gas.  The U.S. Climate Prediction Center on Monday said that below-normal temperatures are expected across the lower 48 U.S. states from November 12-20.

Lower-48 state dry gas production on Tuesday was 100.4 bcf (+2.8% y/y), mildly below the record high of 103.6 bcf posted on Oct 3, according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state total gas demand Tuesday was 70 bcf/day, up +6.6% y/y, according to BNEF.  LNG net flow to U.S. LNG export terminals Tuesday was 11.6 bcf/day, up +0.9% w/w, according to BNEF.

A decline in U.S. electricity output is bearish for nat-gas demand from utility providers.  The Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended Oct 29 fell -0.6% y/y to 68,883 GWh (gigawatt hours).  However, cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending Oct 29 rose +2.1% y/y to 4,114,400 GWh.

Nat-gas prices have support as EU countries agreed to cut nat-gas demand from Russia by 15% by early 2023.  Also, Russia recently slashed nat-gas exports to Europe to 20% of capacity, putting upward pressure on European nat-gas prices.  Russia has already halted nat-gas shipments to Demark, Finland, Bulgaria, Netherlands, Poland, and Latvia and reduced supplies to Germany for not acceding to its demand for gas payments in Russian rubles.

Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices since it showed U.S. nat gas inventories rose +107 bcf in the week ended Oct 28, above expectations of +102 bcf and well above the 5-year seasonal average gain of +45 bcf.  Inventories remain tight and are -3.7% below their 5-year seasonal average.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended Nov 4 fell by -1 rig to 155 rigs, which was below the 3-1/4 year high of 166 rigs posted in the week ended Sep 9.  Active rigs have more than doubled from the record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
 

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