Shootin' the Bull about spittin' distances

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

3/31/2026

Live Cattle:

The end of the first quarter saw most contract months within spitting distance of contract high. Fundamentals have outweighed seasonal tendencies with a mild lower trade in March, but knocking on the contract high by the end.  The strongest portion of the seasonal tendency lower is from now until the first of May.  The higher price is recognition of more rationing needed.  Whether processing or production, there remains so many participants that price continues to move higher. As processing is believed to have done the most rationing, they have begun to show a profit margin.  As the production side has done the least, the profit margin for cattle feeders has eroded to negative with more negative margins projected.  Price fluctuation is going to take place as this is a market of price discovery.  However, that is not the risk.  The risk is believed entering into worsening projected margins, or reliance on an ever higher price. Once decisions are made to assume the risk of current margins, the management of becomes crucial.    

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Feeder Cattle:

Futures traders pushed the front two months into a negative basis with the rest of this year's months closing the spread. Cattlemen appear loading their wagons for spring grazing, that appears to be in jeopardy without a good rain.  With price action having disregarded current events, cattlemen will be expected to stretch themselves a little futher in working capital.  The exposure cattlemen are subjecting themselves to is believed worth managing the risk of.  The improvement of basis leads me to recommend rolling up lower put strike prices and adding to newly acquired inventory.  ​​​

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​Corn:

​The report appeared neutral with all closing higher.  The chart pattern on the corn remains friendly.  Soybeans and soybean oil are in up trends. Markets appear to be trying to disassociate themselves with energy.  

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Energy:​

​Energy has been higher and lower with what appears a great deal of bull spreading.  Back month futures continue to lag way behind front month.  This is not uncommon, considering the specific actions associated with energy.  I anticipate energy to trade higher with huge intervals of volatile price expanse. 

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Bonds:

​Bonds were higher.  Bonds remain in a down trend with resistance between 115'00 and 115'15 June bonds.  

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​​​​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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