Hog Rally Stalls and Pulls Back

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June Lean Hogs opened higher, broke down to the low at 105.65 and then rallied to the high at 107.35. The low and high were put in place during the first 15-minutes of the session and the market spent the rest of the day trying to get back to the low, breaking down and settling near the low at 105.875. Hogs have rallied back to resistance at 106.85 after the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report came out with a bullish lean in my opinion. This brought June Hog futures prices into the upper end of its trading range since it became the lead contract. Unfortunately, the price action wasn’t sustained with price settling below the key level. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report came out last week and the breeding herd and market hog inventories coming out below pre-report estimates. The breeding herd came in at 98.5% with expectations at 99.8% and inventories came in at 100.4% with expectations of 101%. The pigs per litter was higher, showing 11.9 versus 11.65 last year. This continued movement higher with a smaller breeding supply will likely keep pig supplies in a similar position to last year’s numbers. The rally wasn’t sustainable as the cutout and cash prices have weakened the past week and some profit taking likely took place as price neared the recent highs. This keeps Hogs in a trading range as traders wait for better price action in the cash markets. We’ll see!... If price can hold settlement, it could retest resistance at 106.85 and then the Monday high. Resistance then comes in at 107.925. A failure from settlement could see price re-test support at 104.35. Support then comes in at the March 25^th low at 102.95. 

The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 96.91 as of 03/27/2026. 

The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 91.18 as of 03/26/2026.

Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 496,000, which is above last week’s 492,000 and last year’s 461,011.

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

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