Chart of the Day - June Live Cattle

The information and opinions expressed below are based on my analysis of price behavior and chart activity

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Monday, March 30, 2026

June Live Cattle (Daily) 

June Live Cattle settled at 240.200 on the day, gaining 1.425 from Friday’s close.  At the high end of today’s trade, 241.625, prices did start to get into the gap from October when Trump said beef prices were too high.  The market has almost gotten back all of price loss, even though it’s taken a while, and does appear like it wants to continue to move up. Today’s close is the highest since the contract high close on October 16^th.  The nearby April and the deferred contracts from October on out have not yet gotten with range of filling (or starting to fill) the overhead gaps on their respective chart, but they all posted a strong close today.  That gap remains in place, to the dotted red line on the chart above at 242.825.

On Friday of last week, the strong close above last Wednesday’s high was significant, I think.  That Friday close last week was what I would call the first directional close following that Doji, or equilibrium day, when a market closes the day/bar at the same price.  I think that was a positive development for the bulls out there.

The 5- and 10-day moving averages (blue/red) have been in a bullish configuration since March 18^th and both of those averages offered good support, I think, to last week’s trade.  Today those averages are at 236.445 and 234.970, respectively.  The 50-day (green, 233.669) has mild uptrend to it and also seem to act as support throughout the week.  The 100- and 200-day averages (grey and purple) are well below the market and also inclined toward higher prices.  Trade Volume (1^st sub-graph) today, while not the highest we’ve seen, was higher than every day last week, except Friday, and the two last days have been the highest this market has seen since March 12^th.  Stochastics (bottom) have been an overbought condition since last Wednesday.  Over the view of this chart, Cattle prices seem to have preferred being overbought to oversold.  There is a “tail” on today’s bar, but my guess is that it means some profit taking, rather than new selling pressure. 

Last weeks Commitment of Traders data did show an increase in Managed Money in Live Cattle by about 4,300 contracts to the long side, adding to the bullish fund positions. 

From my perspective, I expect Cattle prices to head back up to the contract high of 244.475 from October 16^th. There may be some resistance or profit-taking there, as that’s the next level of tangible technical chart resistance.  Beyond that, the speculative targets of 245.000 or 250.000 (big, round numbers) seem to be reasonable and in play.

Aggressive and well-margined traders may do well to consider long Futures positions. Perhaps an entry near today’s low of 238.725 or the 5-day moving average near 236.500 or so would work for you.  I think your risk is likely just under last week’s low of 232.375.  From the higher entry point, that would work out to a potential risk of 6.350 or $2,540 per contract, before your commissions/fees.  A profit target near the contract high of 244.475 would result in a gain of $2,300 per contract before your commissions/fees.  Not an optimal risk/reward, in my opinion, based on the daily charts, but the weekly chart is also starting to turn back to the bullish side, to my eye.  Perhaps following the market with a trailing stop along the 10-day average might work better, depending on your entry point and risk tolerance.

Slaughter data continues to decline on a weekly basis, as compared to the same time last year.  Imports of beef have been at record levels, and climbing, but that does little to change the actual US supply/demand equation.  I think we still have less Cattle and more people to feed.  

June Live Cattle (Weekly)

I know, it’s only Monday, but the weekly June Live Cattle chart seems to be turning back to the bullish side.  The 5- and 10-week moving averages are making a bullish crossover, in a bit of whipsaw action, potentially reversing the bearish cross those averages made 2 weeks ago.  I think it’s unusual for signals like that to change direction that quickly. Obviously, it does happen from time to time, but not very often, in my opinion.

Those averages are blue and red, with the 5-week offering potential support at roughly 234.550 and the 10-week at 234.125.  Both are inclined toward higher prices, as is the 50-week (green) near the 221.100 level. 

Weekly stochastics (bottom sub-graph) are in overbought territory, but this market has preferred the overbought conditions to oversold over the life of this chart.

Again, it’s only Monday, in a shortened trading week at that.  We’ll have to stay tuned through Thursday’s close to see if the bullish start to the week means a bullish finish.

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Jefferson Fosse  Walsh Trading

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