Shootin' the Bull about higher prices

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

3/30/2026

Live Cattle:

After the run up on the opening, there wasn't much left to the market.  Futures traders have done cattle feeders a solid this week by starting off in a negative basis. With a little over $17.00 rally, lower strike put options are urged to be rolled up.  Not much else transpired through the day that would lead me to anticipate one direction over the other.  Input costs continue to be firm with corn remaining at the upper end of its trading range, crude oil and diesel fuel at their tip top, and feeder cattle and feeder cattle futures higher. Last week's higher trade wasn't enough to keep from a 4th week in a row of negative margins over $300.00 per head.  These losses aren't much in the big picture of things, considering the profits over the past couple of years. Of one exception may be that I believe a great deal of the profits have been reinvested into the industry, leaving producers few reserves were something to shift in current price advance.  

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Feeder Cattle:

Futures remain inverted with a significant discount to the back end, and still in a positive basis to the front.  Futures traders don't seemingly want to own the backgrounders' risk at even, much less premium. The over $20.00 rally allows producers to roll up lower strike put options.  Frustration of the basis is believed causing some to forego managing risk.  Not making all you see you could have made remains a problem to everyone. At times, this can cause producers to assume more risk.  With input costs of everything higher, than just 6 weeks ago, and getting close to having to reload input products for the next quarter, paying up for inventory, creating wider negative margins, the industry is believed stretched in its abilities. ​​​

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​Corn:

​Corn and beans softened into the close. Wheat was able to remain plus on the day.  Drought is bothersome for some wheat areas, as is for pasture.  Tuesday's planting intentions are expected to show more beans than corn acres.  With the chart pattern review from the past couple of days on the December corn, and today's lower trade, cattle feeders are urged to do something before Tuesday's report.  Short dated options on December corn and November soybeans are available that would buy enough time to see if ownership was beneficial or let the option expire.​​

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Energy:​

​Energy continues higher. Even after trading lower on the day, diesel fuel was plus before the settle.  I anticipate energy to continue higher as further military action continues with ultimatums seemingly given by the end of this week.  ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​I anticipate diesel fuel to break and trade above $5.00.  The closer we get to planting, the more demand there will be from domestic use.  I don't know the impact on diesel fuel when planting 180 plus million acres, but when combined with the current military usage, it has to be huge.  

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Bonds:

​Bonds were higher.  I have no idea why.  A dead cat bounce from Friday's contract low is believed.  Bonds and notes are in a bear market with new contract lows.  I anticipate further declines as there has been no price decrease of anything, with housing already having been impacted from months ago.  

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​​​​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.