Shootin' the Bull about $80.00 plus crude oil and $3.60 plus diesel fuel

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

3/05/2026

Live Cattle:

Trading was ground to a pencil point in the fats today.  Traders appeared very indecisive as oil breached and remained above $80.00 per barrel and diesel fuel now trading over $3.60.  These recent developments are going to be direct impacts on multiple  aspects of cattle production, grain and oilseeds, as well as consumer discretionary spending. Many have seen the one sided impact of the war so far, and some believe this to be a short lived ordeal.  It may be, but short term could be 10 more days, 10 more weeks, or 10 more months, and every day the military is burning through approximately 12.6 million of gallons of diesel fuel under normal conditions.  This is no normal condition, and has clearly caught the attention of China, for which they have suspended all diesel fuel exports. 

I hope that I am over exaggerating the situation as much as I hope cattlemen are not under​stating it. 

​

​

Feeder Cattle:

Traders managed to push May to a new high from Monday's low.  Like the fats, trading became exceptionally thin and range bound.  There isn't much to add, as everyone knows the situation, we are just waiting on the outcome of.  How you are prepared will be a determining factor in that outcome.  

​

​Corn:

All were higher today as energy prices continue to influence corn and soybean oil.  Gasoline perked up today, giving reason for a slightly higher corn price, and the record ethanol production at hand. As well, traders pushed new crop December out of the 10 month trading range to the upside.  Farmers pay attention to this.  Soybeans continue to be similar to crude oil. It is a have to product to make what is in demand the most.  In the case of diesel fuel, it has lead the way with crude on its coat tails.  Bean oil has lead the way, dragging beans with it.  Energy has become a demand factor for corn and beans that just two weeks ago was not even thought about.  Having recommended to be long bean oil, keep the stops moved up with no top projection due to no telling what may come next. 

​

"If" there is a resolve in the current conflict, corn and beans would be anticipated to plummet.  "If" the current conflict was exaggerated with the entrance of China to the mix, they could easily tell the US to crush all their own beans.  This is a very delicate situation for farmers and what could be a sizeable price movement in both directions in very short periods of time. 

​

Energy:​

Diesel fuel is the leader of this rally as extensive military action, half way across the world, continues. I do not know of a way to calculate the top as this is a fundamental issue with a great number of moving parts and only a few managing those moving parts. With China having halted all exports of diesel fuel, it leads me to anticipate further escalation of the situation. Japan bombed Pearl Harbor over US oil sanctions.  China is being impacted now as a significant percentage of their oil is imported from Venezuela and Iran.  With some in anticipation that this issue may cause China to act, or react, in a negative manner, I recommend not underestimating what unintended consequences the current events may cause.  

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Bonds:

​Bonds were lower.  Commodity inflation soared again today as higher fuel prices can have a tendency to influence multiple sectors of daily lives.  The Presidents recent actions have reversed lower fuel costs and lower interest rates.  All input costs are higher this week and cattle not.  ​

​

​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.