MAY SOYBEAN OILSHARE - WALSH PURE SPREADER

WALSH PURE SPREADER

Pure Hedge Division

RICH MORAN                                                                                                      3/4/2026

MAY SOYBEAN OILSHARE

Soybean Oilshare is the percentage of the value of the Soybean Oil verses the combined value of the Soybean Oil and the Soybean Meal after crushing a bushel of soybeans. Historically soybean meal has usually been the more valuable part of the crush, but soybean oil has been on the rise to the point that the May Soybean Oilshare has surpassed 50%.

A bushel of soybeans weighs about 60 pounds.  When a bushel is crushed, it produces roughly 11 pounds of Soybean Oil, 44 pounds of Soybean Meal, 4 pounds of hulls and a pound of waste (44+11+4+1=60).

Please feel free to contact me for help calculating the value of 1 pound of Soybean Oil and/or 1 pound of Soybean Meal.  The Oilshare is the value (percentage) you get when you divide 11 pounds of Soybean Oil by the combined value of 11 pounds of Soybean Oil plus 44 pounds of Soybean Meal. Remember, there are about 11 pounds of Oil and 44 pounds of Meal that result from a crushed bushel of Soybeans.

Historically, Soybean Oil was predominantly used as an edible oil.  It was also used as a bio-fuel, but more recent environmental mandates and incentives have increased this use to reduce one’s carbon footprint.  Its most common uses for this are in transportation, heating and electricity.  Soybean Oil is regarded as a renewable energy and emits less greenhouse gas emissions, reducing potential global warming and climate change.   

Crude Oil has been on the rise since the end of 2025 and this may have also increased the demand for Soybean Oil as they are both forms of energy.  And there are other factors that may be contributing to the strength of Soybean Oil.  For example, in regard to edible oils, there is less sunflower oil currently coming out of Ukraine.

Traditionally, Soybean Meal has usually made up the more valuable percentage of the Soybean Crush, but currently Soybean Oil is on the rise and the May Soybean Oilshare is above 50%, settling today at 50.650.  I think that this trend might not be over and you may want to buy the Soybean Oilshare or buy Soybean Oil and spread (sell) Soybeans against it.  Feel free to contact me for possible spread ratios.

If you have any thoughts/questions on this article or any questions at all in regard to the commodities futures markets, please use this link  Sign Up Now

Following up on still active past trade suggestions:

• 2/11/2026:  ZSK26-ZSU26 (MAY-SEPT ’26 SOYBEAN SPREAD)

**** On 2/12/26 – This spread opened higher at +31½ and traded straight up to +32¼.  So (on paper), we had a better sell fill at +31½, but we were quickly stopped out at 32¼ (please see below).  It turned out to be a very quick trade, but we only lost ¾ of a cent or $37.50 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

I am suggesting that when the market opens this evening, try to sell ZSK26-ZSU26 at +27¾ or better.  If you are unable to sell it at this price on the opening, I recommend leaving an offer in at +27¾.

If and when we are able to sell this spread, we can/will choose our exact exit levels.  In any case, if you are able to get short the spread, look to exit the trade with a short stop if it trades up to +32¼.

• 2/4/2026:  ZLQ26-ZLZ26 (AUG-DEC ’26 SOYBEAN-OIL SPREAD)

• Today’s Settlement:  +2.14, Working a +0.84 Bid

**** 3/4/26 – Today this spread settled +2.14.  We were obviously correct on its direction, but it has gotten away from us.  I am suggesting to pull this bid for now, but I am still a big fan of the Soybean-Oil Spreads.  Please read today’s article (above).

If you keep the MAY-AUG spread and buy the AUG-DEC spread, the AUG’s will cancel each other out you will actually be long the MAY-DEC soybean-oil spread in your position or on your statement.  I would still be looking at this as two separate spreads.  If we do decide to get out of both positions at the same time, we can just sell the MAY-DEC spread to be flat in both the MAY-AUG spread and the AUG-DEC spread.

If you are not in the SOYBEAN-OIL SPREAD market yet, I suggest buying the AUG-DEC ’26 SOYBEAN-OIL SPREAD (ZLQ26-ZLZ26). This will now give you more time than the first two spreads and there will not be the need to roll a position.

Because we are already long 2 SOYBEAN-OIL SPREADS, we can be a little patient by putting a bid in slightly below today’s settlement.  When the market opens this evening, I suggest trying to buy ZLQ26-ZLZ26 (AUG-DEC ’26 SOYBEAN-OIL SPREAD) at +0.84 or better.  If you are not able to buy the spread at this level on the opening, leave a resting bid in at +0.84.  We can choose our exact exit points if and when we are able to establish this position.  In any case, if you are able to buy this spread, look to get out if it trades down to +0.22.

• 1/23/2026:  KCN26-KCU26 (JULY-SEPT ’26 COFFEE SPREAD)

Today’s Settlement: 4.95,  14 Day Moving Average: 4.55,  21 Day Moving Average: 4.70

**** Today (3/4/25) – KCN26-KCU26 traded and settled above both the 14-day and 21-day moving averages (please see below).  I am suggesting that when the market re-opens, try to buy this spread at 4.95 (today’s settlement) or better. We can pick our exact exit points when and if we are able to buy this spread, but if you are able to get long this spread, I suggest you exit the trade if it trades down to 3.50.

JULY-SEPT ’26 COFFEE SPREAD (KCN26-KCU26) has been hovering below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages since the start of its recent downward trend that began on 11/6/25.  This spread started to stabilize at the beginning of this year at around 6.00.  As this started to happen, the chart naturally began to flirt with both of these moving averages.

Brazilian coffee exports are down.  This could help explain the recent halt in the bearish move in the spread.  Also, drier weather in Brazil seems to be having the same effect on things.

I am suggesting that if KCN26-KCU26 trades above and settles above both the 14-day and the 21-day moving averages, we should try getting long this spread with a short stop just below the 52-week low.  We can choose our exact exit points when and if we are able to put this trade on.

1/16/2026:  ZLK26-ZLQ26 (MAY-AUG ’26 SOYBEAN-OIL SPREAD)

Today’s Settlement: +0.72,  Long at: -0.13

**** O 2/26/26 – This spread traded up to 0.67, so we were able to sell the spread at +0.53 for a $396 Winner Per Spread plus fess and commissions.

**** On 2/6/26 – We now have a nice lead on this spread.  I hate turning a winner into a loser so I am suggesting to move our stop to -0.13 for a scratch.                                                                               We are now Risking a scratch (price of -0.13) to make 66 tics (price of +0.53) or $396 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

**** On 1/26/26: ZLH26-ZLN26 traded -0.14 on so we are long (on paper) at -0.13.  (please see below).                                                                                                                                                       Risking 22 ticks (price of -0.35) or $132 to make 66 ticks (price of +0.53) or $396 Per Spread, plus fees and  

I am suggesting that when the market opens on Monday evening, we could try to buy ZLK26-ZLQ26 at -0.13 cents (today’s settlement) or better.  If we open higher than that, just leave a -0.13 resting bid in.  We are already long (on paper) ZLH26-ZLN26 so we can be a little patient with this this one.  We can pick our exact exit points if and when we are able to put this trade on.  In any case, if you do get long this spread, I would stop yourself out at -0.36 cents.

•  1/14/2026 ZWK26-ZWN26 (MAY-JULY ’26 Wheat Spread)

Today’s Settlement: -9½,  Long at -11

**** On 2/13/26 – We now have a nice lead on this spread.  I hate turning a winner into a loser so I am suggesting to move our stop to -11 for a scratch. 

We are now Risking a scratch (price of -11) to make 7½ cents(price of -3½) or $396 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.

**** On 1/29/26: ZWK26-ZWN26 traded -11¼, so we are long (on paper) at -11.                             Risk 2½ cents (price of -13½) or $125.00 Per Spread to make 7½ cents (price of -3½) or 375.00 Per Spread plus fees and commissions.

**** On 1/27/26: “ZWK26-ZWN26 traded and settled above both the 14-day and 21-day moving averages (please see below).  I am suggesting to try to buy this spread at -11 or better.” 

I am suggesting that if we can trade above and settle above both the 14-day and the 21-day moving averages, we should try to get long this spread.  We can pick our exact exit points when and if we are able to put this trade on.

• 10/1/2025: SBH26-SBK26 (MAR-MAY’26 Sugar #11 Spread)

Today’s settlement: 0.41, Long at 0.42

On 10/1/25 I said, “I think it might be a good play to bid today’s settlement (42 cents) or better when the Sugar market opens.”

On 10/2/25 the market opened at .41, so we are long at .42.

Risk 24 cents (price of .18) or $268.80 Per Spread to make 50 cents (price of .92) or $560.00 Per Spread plus fees and commissions.

If you have any thoughts/questions on this article or any questions at all in regard to the commodities futures markets, please use this link  Sign Up Now

Rich Moran

Senior Commodities Broker

RMoran@walshtrading.com

Direct: (312)985-0298 

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involve substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.  All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.