Cattle Futures Crash

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The cattle markets took a haymaker to the chin on Friday, getting knocked down and they weren’t able to bounce back, settling at the lows of the day. The markets saw relentless month end selling as talk the workers at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado voted to strike and will tell JBS on Monday with a week notice of the intent. I haven’t seen official word that the vote is in for a strike but that was the buzz going around with my clients. The plants’ workers have a lot of grievances with the company and not all of them are about money. Conditions are said to be dangerous at the plant with injuries common and that negotiations have been ongoing for months with no confidence of it getting resolved without a strike taking place. The Greeley plant is described as the flagship plant for JBS and could be the largest fed-beef plant in the US. A strike would cut slaughter capacity further, along with the Tyson plant shutdown and slowdowns at other plants. Beef supply could be cut further leading to a jump in already high beef prices. The continued weakness in futures put producers on edge and they caved to the pullback in cash bids from the packing industry. Cash set a new all-time high average price last week at 246.91 and tied the all-time high negotiated price at 249.00 last week for live cattle. Dressed prices established a new all-time high at 394.00 last week. It is not uncommon in normal trading to see cash pullback after successive all-time high prices, so seeing cash back off with this uncertainty in the futures markets is not too surprising. However, the plant is still open and slaughtering cattle. Slaughter numbers have dwindled this year on a weekly basis and for the second week in a row it is expected to see slaughter at 516,000. The lower slaughter numbers likely are the result of lower cattle supply but the packer loves the image of lower plant capacity to drive prices down without having lower capacity at the present time. They must be grateful for the rumor mill that sets off these algorithm trading systems. Feeders nearly went down limit in the April contract which is now the lead contract based on volume. This took price near the 100-DMA on the continuous chart now at 348.85 while April live Cattle actually settled below its 100-DMA(232.30) on the continuous chart. The break in Feeders took price through support at the rising 50-DMA now at 357.80, and then 354.55, stopping just above 350.20 as it made the low at 350.35. The high was at 358.825, with settlement at 351.20. If Feeder cattle can hold settlement, it could see price test resistance at 354.55. Resistance then comes in at the 50-DMA. A breakdown from the low  could see price test support at the 100-DMA. Support then comes in at 344.675. April Live Cattle made its high at 237.05 and then broke down through the flattening 50-DMA now at 236.10 and then took out support at 232.75 and the 100-DMA, making the low at 232.00. It settled at 232.225. If cattle can rebound and retake the 232.75 level, we could retrace higher and test resistance at 235.625. A failure below the 100-DMA could see price test support at 230.425. A failure here and price could test the rising 200-DMA now at 227.95.

The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 372.79 as of 02/26/2026.

Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts increased 1.88 to 379.77 and select surged 3.46 to 374.25. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 5.52 and the load count was 73.

Friday’s estimated slaughter is 86,000, which is below last week’s 89,000 and last year’s 107,210. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 3,000, which is above last week’s zero slaughter and last year’s 1,204. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 516,000, which is even with last week and below last year’s 568,747.

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been light to moderate on light to moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle. Compared to last week, live purchases have been 5.00 lower at 244.00. Negotiated cash trade has been moderate on moderate demand in Kansas, Nebraska, and the Western Cornbelt. Compared to last week in Kansas, live purchases have been 5.00 lower at 244.00. In Nebraska, there has not been enough purchases at any price level to establish an accurate market test, however live purchases ranged from 239.00-244.00. The last established dressed market in Nebraska was Thursday at 383.00. Compared to Thursday in the Western Cornbelt, live purchases have been steady to 3.00 lower from 240.00-243.00. The last established dressed market in the Western Cornbelt was last week at 388.00.

The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 239.00 – 245.00 and from 378.00 – 384.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

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