Shootin' the Bull about what is bullish

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

2/25/2026

Live Cattle:

A minor basis convergence of a dollar, at the close, finished off a day of seemingly short covering and potentially some new longs.  Other than this, there was not much that transpired.    

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Feeder Cattle:

The index a tad lower, and futures pretty much $2.00 higher, helped to converge basis.  Unfortunately, not by nearly enough to reduce the risks that producers are faced with. Paying top dollar today, with only discounts to market into, subjects producers to basis risks, as well as price risk. With ways and means to manage the basis spreads, and price risk, your decisions entail great consequences as to how you manage the ownership and procurement of the most expensive inventory in history. 

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Now for the bulls.  The feeder cattle market is bullish because there are more producers bidding higher to attract inventory to their production facility. Hence, until cattlemen begin to realize losses, or worse, rationing further contracts processing and production capacity, cattlemen are expected to keep bidding for cattle, whether the price goes up or down. Rationing began with the packer, has bled into the feedyards, with the softer feeder cattle index potentially suggesting further rationing of production capacity, or projected losses to a point in which a higher average can't be managed. 

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​Corn:

Corn was a little higher.  The expectations of a swap of acres from corn to soybeans, and expectations of a friendly Biofuels proposal this week may help to spur corn further.  Regardless of what, corn is moving a little higher and leads to urging cattle feeders to consider the $.14 to $.18 call option premium on a July corn call.  Beans continue higher with hopes of a biofuels deal that will boost bio-diesel fuel.  With November beans a nickel from a double top, if you have not made your first sale, this appears as a good price to start.  A disappointing bio-fuels mandate, or worse, China stops paying a dollar more for US beans, would lead me to anticipate a return to January lows in quick fashion. 

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Energy:​

Energy traders produced a correction in the diesel fuel overnight, but as I write this, a new high for the day was made.  Diesel fuel continues to lead the way higher and is expected to continue as military actions consume large quantities of diesel and jet fuel. 

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Bonds:

Bonds were down 4 tics and still very much in an up trend.  In last nights speech, I didn't hear anything that would lead me to anticipate a reversal of the loose monetary policy.  Of concern though is a belief that the loose monetary policy will further divide what is being called a two-tiered economy.  Others use the term "K" shaped, but both suggest the same.  Where the rubber meets the road is that there appears a lot more consumers on the bottom side of the tier than top.    ​

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​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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