Oil Rallies on Iran Risk as OPEC+ Supply Decision Looms

OPEC+ will meet this weekend to discuss April supply plans. It is likely that the group will continue with the (now paused) hiking plan. The hike plan was paused to account for normal seasonal weakness from Dec – March. With the supply hikes coming back online, look for some added pressure on the downside from a headline, and supply perspective.       

Weekly Technical History:

Monday 2/16- Holding of the 62.57*** level is key today. Risk is still skewed to the upside. Volumes and volatility are likely lighter today on holiday volumes.  

Wednesday  – Price action was disappointing, but held support at 61.85***. Headlines throughout the day may provide for better entry than this morning, liquidity remains scarce pre US open.

Thursday – Favored profit taking and shaving near 66.04*** level. 

Friday – Yesterday’s rally punched out above the local 65.48*** high (01/29/26), and the longer-term high of 66.04*** (07/30/2025). The overnight high of 66.79 into 66.90 is a key region to watch through the US session.

Friday = With the ball in Iran’s court on negotiations, risk for the day looks tilted to the downside. Our Iran catalyst we began playing around 60.00 is mainstream chatter now and risk-premium within futures has been added with velocity. Some retraction on “positive” Iran rhetoric could come through the weekend.  

Tuesday – Yesterday’s high of 67.05 should be watched closely today. Iran is still up in the air and the strait of Hormuz closure still presents an upside catalyst. Risk is skewed to the upside, but some profit taking up at these levels is prudent for the customers long since the 60.00 level.   

Updated Technical:

CL held the lows of 65.24 yesterday, and is rallying today despite the OPEC+ headlines. Iran based buying is still the main catalyst driving this market. But, be aware of these OPEC+ headlines weighing on markets.

Read the full article, featuring proprietary tables and charts from Blue Line Futures: 

Oil Rallies on Iran Risk as OPEC+ Supply Decision Looms - Blue Line Futures

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