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We wrote a 1st half 2026 Grain and Livestock outlook. Sign up through the above link or the QR code down below.
April Lean Hogs opened higher, made an early high and then broke down to the session low at 95.725. The breakdown closed the gap created from the January 21st high at 95.725 and the January 22nd low at 95.825. With the gap closed, price reversed course and rallied to the session high at 97.375. It once again pulled back and then settled in the middle of the range at 96.725. The rally in Hogs took April to a new high for the up move before pulling back into the two-day trading range. The high tested resistance at 97.375 and the low took out the previous two sessions low but did not attempt to challenge support at 95.30. It formed an Outside Day up candlestick but with a small bodied candle isn’t a strong bullish candle. This could continue the consolidation and keep price within the 97.30 – 95.30 band it is in. Hogs however can continue higher as the cash market is once again bouncing off its lows. The Cutout and Lean Hog Indices are moving higher as production is starting to slow and demand for pork remains healthy and strong. The US Dollar has broken down and could help our export situation going forward adding to demand. Our exports have been stable but not impressive. With the Dollar weakening, we could see exports improve and with production starting to slow down and weights also pulling back, could lend a helping hand to send cutout and cash prices higher into February. There are also disease pressures as I have been told the PRRS disease has been putting a dent in the hog supply and this could create more competition for pork as retailers fight for supply as we move towards grilling season. We’ll see!... If price can hold settlement, we could see a re-test of resistance at 97.30. Resistance then comes in at 98.475. A failure from the settlement could see price test support at 95.30. Support then comes in at 93.50.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 94.40 as of 01/23/2026.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 83.62 as of 01/22/2026.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 4226,000, which is above last week’s 421,000 and above last year’s 481,345.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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