Nat-Gas Prices Fall on Above-Normal US Weather Forecasts

February Nymex natural gas (NGG26) on Friday closed down -0.068 (-1.84%),

Feb nat-gas prices extended this week's sell-off on Friday to a 2.25-month nearest-futures low.  Nat-gas prices retreated as warmer-than-normal US weather forecasts for mid-January could reduce nat-gas heating demand and boost storage levels.  Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Friday that much warmer-than-normal temperatures are forecast over the eastern two-thirds of the US for January 7-11.  Also, temperatures shifted warmer across the north-central US region for January 12-16.  

Higher US nat-gas production is bearish for prices.  The EIA on December 9 raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production to 107.74 bcf/day from its November estimate of 107.70 bcf/day.  US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.

US (lower-48) dry gas production on Friday was 110.0 bcf/day (+4.4% y/y), according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand on Friday was 101.0 bcf/day (+0.3% y/y), according to BNEF.  Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday were 19.6 bcf/day (+1.9% w/w), according to BNEF.

As a supportive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported on December 10 that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended December 6 rose +2.3% y/y to 85,330 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending December 6 rose +2.84% y/y to 4,291,665 GWh.

Wednesday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended December 26 fell by -38 bcf, a smaller draw than the market consensus of -51 bcf and much smaller than the 5-year weekly average draw of -120 bcf.  As of December 26, nat-gas inventories were down -1.1% y/y and were +1.7% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies.  As of December 31, gas storage in Europe was 62% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 74% full for this time of year.

Baker Hughes reported Tuesday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending January 2 fell by -2 to 125 rigs, modestly below the 2.25-year high of 130 set on November 28.  In the past year, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.