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Apple (AAPL) stock has been a notable laggard in 2025, with the shares down approximately 16% year-to-date - significantly underperforming its Magnificent 7 tech peers amid concerns over iPhone sales and perceived artificial intelligence (AI) development delays. Today, though, Jefferies analysts led by Edison Lee upgraded AAPL to “Hold” from “Underperform,” based on expectations for a “potential upside surprise” in third-quarter iPhone sales growth.
However, while the brokerage firm raised its Q3 iPhone sales forecast to 49.4 million units, the analysts simultaneously cut forecasts for Apple’s crucial September quarter by 11% to 46.3 million.
AAPL stock is trading slightly higher this morning after closing Tuesday at a 6-week high, just above its upper Bollinger Band.

Recent gains have been primarily driven by reports that Apple is considering partnerships with Anthropic or OpenAI to enhance Siri's capabilities, which would represent a significant strategic pivot from Apple's traditional in-house development approach.
What’s the Big Picture for AAPL Stock?
Apple’s core business faces multiple headwinds, with reports today suggesting its efforts to diversify manufacturing efforts to India have encountered resistance from Beijing, with hundreds of Chinese engineers being recalled from iPhone factories. At the same time, production forecasts for the iPhone 17 are tracking approximately 9% below iPhone 16 levels, raising concerns about future growth prospects. Additionally, the implementation of new tariffs could potentially impact earnings by 7%, though Apple has committed to significant U.S. investment of $500 billion over four years.
Despite these challenges, Apple's Services segment continues to demonstrate robust growth, boasting over 1 billion paid subscribers and achieving 11.6% year-over-year revenue growth to $26.65 billion in the latest quarter. However, this success coincides with increasing regulatory scrutiny, as evidenced by a federal judge's recent decision to allow an antitrust lawsuit targeting Apple's "walled garden" ecosystem to proceed. The company's high-margin revenue streams from Services could face pressure from regulatory interventions, particularly regarding App Store practices and its lucrative Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) search deal.
Is AAPL Stock a Good Buy Right Now?
The market's response to Apple's evolving AI strategy and its ability to navigate manufacturing challenges will likely determine near-term performance. Looking ahead, Apple's success will largely depend on its ability to execute its AI integration plans, maintain iPhone sales momentum, and effectively manage ongoing regulatory and trade policy challenges while sustaining its ecosystem advantages.
The stock is rated a “Moderate Buy” on Wall Street, but AAPL’s premium valuation (at 29 times forward adjusted earnings) suggests there’s no real discount to be had at current levels, despite the recent underperformance. While AAPL investors likely have no cause for immediate concern, there doesn’t seem to be an immediate catalyst to buy shares at these levels, either.