Tariff Shock Sends E-mini S&P and NQ Tumbling Below Key Levels

E-mini S&P (March) / E-mini NQ (March)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5860.75, down 102.50

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 20,468.25, down 451.25

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures slipped sharply into the close yesterday, trading to a new low after President Trump confirmed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China will be implemented today. And implemented they were, 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico and 20% on imports from China, up from 10%. Overnight, Canada imposed 25% tariffs on $107 billion of U.S. goods, and China slapped 15% measures on goods, including many U.S. agricultural products. Mexico said it will announce tariffs on the U.S. Sunday. While equity markets are under pressure in lieu of these announcements, and market participants may have hoped for watered-down measures, this was very telegraphed. Furthermore, sentiment and PMI readings, along with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow, which forecasts growth to shrink by -2.8% in Q1, are already extrapolating the impact.

E-mini S&P futures have stuck their nose below the 200-day moving average, but hanging around the level that comes in at 5837 today. As price action battles, hitting a low early this morning of 5812, it is also very notable that 5811.50 is the .382 retracement from the December high back to the August low. Around that level also has 5809, the overnight low into the January 13th session, and the intraday of that session at 5813 and the reversal low in which in never looked back at 5816.50; these levels converge to create rare major four-star support. The E-mini NQ is trading below its 200-day moving average at 20,660, which aligns at the .382 retracement which was broken and will now act as a critical area of resistance in which price action must regain. It is now go-time with the E-mini S&P testing its aforementioned major four-star support and the E-mini NQ testing its at….

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