Corn futures broke below the 20-day moving average for the first time since December 5th, is a trend change in order? Oliver Sloup was on RFD-TV Monday morning to share his thoughts on the price action in grain and livestock markets.
Wheat
Monday’s Recap
Monday’s Wheat market was mixed with the May contract dropping 10’4, or 1.74%, to 593’4, a one week low. Overall, 142,078 contracts were traded, with 73,404 done in May. Across all maturities, open interest dropped 4,028, or 0.98%, to end the session with 408,431 outstanding. The May maturity added 2.19% (4,028) to finish at 204,225.
Technicals
Wheat futures tested and held the 20-day moving average in Monday’s trade. Though it was a lower trade, it looked like it may hold together. The overnight and early morning trade have since- neutralized that bias a bit. If the Bulls fail to find their footing today and defend 585-588 1/4, continued weakness could press prices down to our next support pocket from 574 1/2-577 1/2.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 616 1/2-621 3/4****, 633 1/4-638 3/4****
Pivot: 598 1/4-602 3/4
Support: 585-588-1/4***, 574 1/2-577 1/2****, 564 3/4-569***
Popular Options
Option trading centered around the April 630 calls with 1,175 done and the March ZW1 575 puts with volume of 1,354. Greatest volumes in May option trading were seen in the 600 calls (729) and the 540 puts (770). Calls with the highest open interest are the July 900 strike (10,677), and for the puts are the May 550 strike (4,176).
Volatility Update
Implied Volatility ended slightly up with WVL gaining 0.18, to close the day at 28.80. The 30-day historical volatility finished the day adding 0.55% to a one month high of 30.15%. The WVL Skew finished the day higher, adding 0.33 to settle at 5.53.
Read the Full Article with charts here: https://bluelinefutures.com/2025/02/25/is-a-short-term-trend-change-in-order/
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