Pure Hedge - Livestock and Grain

6/16/26

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The Cattle Markets Charged ahead today, with the Fats and the Feeders both gaining more than 5 dollars. August'26 Live Cattle were 5.95 higher today and settled at 249.20. Today's high was 249.45 and the 1-month high is 249.97 ½. Today's low was 242.95 and the 1-month low is 233.97 ½. Since 5/15 August'26 Live Cattle are 1.20 higher or about ½% higher. The August'26 Feeders performed well today. The August'26 Feeder Cattle were 5.32 ½ higher today and settled at 366.87 ½. Today's high was 367.90 and that is the new 1-month high as well. Today's low was 360.20 and the 1-month low is 335.95. Since 5/15 August'26 Feeder Cattle are 5.42 ½ higher or 1 ½%. The Hogs traded a little lower again today. August'26 Lean Hogs were 72 ½ cents lower today and settled at 95.05. Today's high was 96.57 ½ and the 1-month high is 105.60. Today's low was 95.00 and the 1-month low is 93.97 ½. Since 5/15 August'26 Lean Hogs are 9.10 lower or almost 9%. The Cattle Markets are on fire again and it is fun to watch. The August'26 Feeders have gained 9.45 over the last two trading sessions. The August'26 Live Cattle are 8.02 ½ higher over the same two-day period. Today the August'26 Fats traded to within 52 ½ cents of the 1-month high at 249.97 ½ and just 2.20 from the contract high at 251.65. I feel we can see the Cattle Markets continue to rally for a while. JBS closed two plant the other day, and I see that as Bullish, as there might not be enough Cattle to justify keeping the plants open. The weights have dropped about 5 pounds as well. There have not been any trades reported in the cash market yet, and that could change tomorrow. The Cattle on Feed Report is this Thursday, as all Livestock and Grain Markets will be closed on Friday. We usually see the Packers try to knock the market down on Thursdays, and we could see them try to do that again tomorrow, but with the current high prices and low Cattle numbers, it could be different this week, and I expect the cash market to be strong this week. There are also 13 million plus people here watching soccer games, and that has to help with the demand for beef. Record Stock Market prices, and much lower Crude Oil prices have to help as well. Open interest in Live Cattle has over the last four trading days has increased by almost 8000 contracts, and that does not include whatever happened today. I feel it all points to higher prices in the Fats and Feeders, and prices could explode if there is a surprise in the Cattle on Feed Report. There are a couple new trades below in the February'27 Live Cattle, along with one a couple days older. I am putting together new trades in the August'26 and October'26 Live Cattle today, with the thought the futures prices will have to rise to keep up with the cash market, just as the June contract month has done. I could be a wild ride higher, and opportunity abounds in the Option Markets. Give me a call if you would like to know more, and if you get your account open now, you can participate in this rally and be prepared when the market turns. The Hogs are still ugly and continue to find lower branches to hit. The Hogs closed like garbage today was well, settling just 5 cents above today's low. I feel a new contract low will be necessary before a rally can occur. 

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Comments from last Tuesday:

The Cattle Markets look great, and I continued to buy more in the Option Market. It looks like there is a deal with Iran, and currently the Crude Oil Market is down more than $4.00. If the Crude Oil continues to break tonight and tomorrow morning, it could spark new buying in the Cattle Markets. I feel we could see the August'26 Fats, and the August'26 Feeders challenge their 1-month highs very soon. The July'26 Hogs were lower today, but not by much. They have come back a little after almost making a new contract low two days ago, but I still like them trading lower from here. There is still opportunity in the Option Markets, give me a call and I will explain how. 

Comments from Tuesday:

The screwworm has arrived in the US and since it was confirmed, the August'26 Feeders have gained 11.52 ½ over the last four trading days, and I feel we can continue to see it trade higher. I feel we can see the August'26 Feeder trade back toward the 1-month high at 367.50. The Hogs continue to get crushed, and my target level in the August'26 Hogs is approaching quickly, and over the last four trading days, August'26 Hogs are down 4.87 ½. Today the August'26 Hogs set a new 1-month low at 94.30, and it looks like a new contract low is in the cards. Currently, the contract low in August'26 Hogs is 93.65, and I will get out of my shorts in the Market if a new contract low is made. It could trade much lower and I don't recommend buying it. There is a Feeder Cattle Trade below that I put on yesterday morning, and that should show you where I think the market could trade. Give me a call if you have any questions. It's time to get your account open as well. 

Comments from last Thursday:

It's a great day to be alive! All the markets were crazy today. The Feeder Market, thankfully, did exactly what I thought it would do today, and closed even stronger than I anticipated. The screwworm scare sent the Feeders almost 6-dollars lower on the open this morning, but after the algo's were done, the market shot straight up as expected. The August'26 Feeders made a new 1-month low this morning at 335.95 and then shot $17.42 ½ higher to settle limit up, on newly expanded daily limits that began on June 1st. The new daily limit for the Feeders is obviously 10.75 and, in the Fats, the new daily limit is 8.50. Tomorrow, the Feeders will have an expanded limit of 16-dollars, and the Fats will have an extended limit of 12.75. I was able to put on more Bullish Option Trades this morning right on the open in the September'26 Feeders, and that worked out just fine. It is the same September'26 Feeder Trade I sent to you yesterday, if you receive my emails. The “fear” of the Screwworm keeping the Cattle Markets lower was ridiculous, as infected Cattle, along with all the other Cattle with it will be locked down, and not just in one feedyard or pasture, it locks down ALL Cattle in a 12-Mile radius, and I heard it could last for a while, and a larger outbreak could require the use of drugs through the US Food and Drug Administration. Cattle numbers are already tight as everyone knows, and if this thing spreads, then based on current regulations, (and things always change) more Cattle could be locked down as well. If the Screwworm does spread and causes problems moving Cattle, or finding available Cattle, then prices can trade much higher, however, if prices spike, then I would anticipate the Southern Border reopening quickly. No point keeping it closed if the screwworm spreads everywhere here, and that is what the government could do if prices climb, along with changing the rules. So, I recommend staying nimble in the Option Markets moving forward, and or using a sliding stop to protect the downside in the Futures. I am still Bullish the Cattle Markets. I would like to speak with you, and when you have time, give me a call.

Comments from last Tuesday:

The Cattle Markets traded lower today, with worries of the screwworm approaching the US border. The closest report of a screwworm I have heard or seen is 31 miles South of the US Border. I still feel the Cattle Markets are a buy, and I bought some futures today in the Feeders. The Stock Markets are at record highs, and the Crude Oil could be breaking shortly. If or when a screwworm is found in the US, I would expect the market to break initially on unnecessary “fear” but then rally back. If Cattle in the US are found to have the screwworm, then all Cattle in that area will be “locked down” and unable to move. It is not clear how big of an area would be locked down, the duration, or what would be needed to lift the lock down. If the area is substantial, then that could cause more strain on a Cattle Market that already has very tight numbers. I am still Bullish the Fats and Feeders and feel we can see higher prices the rest of this week and beyond. The July'26 Hogs rallied 3.35 after setting a new 1-month low today at 98.30. I doubt that the new 1-month low will hold there for very long. I would like to work with you, give me a call.

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NOW IS THE TIME TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT BEFORE IT IS JULY AGAIN

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BELOW IS A DIRECT LINK TO FILL OUT ACCOUNT PAPERWORK - PLEASE CALL ME IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS.

https://portal2.straitsfinancial.com/Identity/Account/Register?brokerId=978

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Having a Trading or Hedging Account is essential for your business to be successful. Market volatility has increased across all commodities over the last 12 months, and I expect it to continue to increase over the next 12 months as well. Opening an account in the future, will not help you if you need access now. To be successful, you need to be able to manage risk in real time. If you are proactive now, you will have the ability to be reactive when you need to be. You can be Prepared and Patient at the same time. Call me or hit the direct link above.

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The Grain Markets were mixed today, with the Corn trading a little lower. November'26 Soybeans were 10 ¾ cents higher today and settled at 1145 ½. Today's high was 1156 ½ and the 1-month high is 1207 ½. Today's low was 1124 and the 1-month low is 1121 ¾. Since 5/15 November'26 Soybeans are 24 ¼ cents lower or more than 2%. July'26 Corn traded lower today. July'26 Corn was 1 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 413 ¾. Today's high was 421 and the 1-month high is 481 ¾. Today's low was 412 ½ and the 1-month, and contract low are 406 ¼. Since 5/15 July'26 Corn is 42 cents lower or more than 9%. The Wheat Market was a little higher today. September'26 Wheat was 3 ¾ cents higher today and settled at 604 ¼. Today's high was 614 and the 1-month high is 691 ¾. Today's low was 593 ½ and the 1-month low is 582 ¼. Since 5/15 September'26 Wheat is 45 ½ cents lower or 7%. The Grains jumped higher on the open and it was unclear most of the day why, but my best guess is word got out that China is going to buy Soybeans. I have not seen anything official yet and expect Beans to drift lower until something official is said, if at all. November'26 Soybeans traded to within 2 ¼ cents of the 1-month low today at 1121 ¾. The Corn and the Wheat traded higher but closed well below the highs of the day. July'26 Corn traded to within 6 ¼ cents of the 1-month and contract low today at 406 ¼. The September'26 Wheat was all over the place today and traded to within 11 ¼ cents of the 1-month low but ended the day right in the middle of today's trading range. I still like the Soybean Oil to trade lower from here. and have a few new spreads available if you are interested. Please give me a call if you have any questions. Have a great night.

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Comments from last Thursday:

The WASDE Report did not help any of the Grains, and they all sank lower. The Beans and Wheat could still break a significant amount, but the Corn is probably near the lows. I still like selling the July'26 Soybeans and Buying the November'26 Soybeans. In the Corn Market I still like buying the September'26 and selling the December'26 Corn. The Wheat Market looks dangerous at this level and would look to collect premium if I did anything at all. We could see the Soybean Meal and the Soybean Oil break for a while. Crushing margins have been huge, and with all the Beans out there they might start to hedge in the products. I have Option Trades ready to go in all of these markets, just give me a call. Trades from Tuesday are still shown below. Have a great night.

Comments from Tuesday:

There is a WASDE Report on Thursday, and I expect the Grains to grind lower until the report is released. There could be a surprise in the Report, if many acres were switched from Corn to Soybeans, and we will see soon enough. I still like the Beans to head lower from here, and I like selling the July'26 Soybeans and buying the November'26 Soybeans. We could see strength in the Corn at some point, and I like buying the September'26 Corn and selling the December'26 Corn. I am waiting for the Wheat to break more before doing anything. The Soybean Meal has been breaking nicely, and yesterday I put on an Option trade in the August'26 contract month, and that Trade is shown below. The August'26 Soybean Meal traded lower for the eighth day in a row today, dropping 26.10 over those eight trading days. I have trades ready to go in all of the Livestock and Grain Markets. Give me a call if you are interested in seeing any of them, or if you are ready to finally open an account. I would like to work with you, and the second half of this year could be unbelievable, and I am looking forward to it. Take a look at the two trades below and let me know if you have any questions. Have a great night. 

Comments from last Thursday:

It is great when the markets cooperate and do what they are supposed to do. The Soybean price has been inflated for a while, and it now starting to come back down to reality. I have liked the 1100 level in July'26 Soybeans for a while, and this week it has paid off. I do not see the Beans trading higher from here for a while, and they could continue to grind lower from here. The Corn Market made a new contract low today, and it could be a buying opportunity. Today I bought the September'26 Corn and sold the December'26. That spread settled 19 cents under today and September'26 could eventually trade over the December'26. The Wheat Market was inflated as well, and it was a good ride lower, right to my level for July'26 Wheat at 580. I don't expect much upside in the wheat market moving forward for a while. I did put on new trades in the Soybean Oil this morning, and they are working well. If you received my emails yesterday, I did the first one listed. If you would like to see any of my trade ideas, just let me know. It was one heck of a day, and I appreciate your business. I am looking forward to tomorrow, but now it is time for a beer or two. Have a great night. 

Comments from Tuesday:

The Grains have all been breaking for a while now, and that is because they should. July'26 Beans have zero business being over or anywhere near 1200. I still feel we can see them trade closer to the 1100 level. The Corn Market kinda did what I thought it would do. I sold the July'26 440 Straddle for 38 cents and today it settled at 17 ¾, and I am expecting it to expire worthless. The Wheat Market finally fell out of bed, and that has been a good trade as I continued to sell it all the way up in the Option Market. I feel we can see the July'26 Wheat trade toward the 580 level. Planting has gone well, and the weather in general has been good. The Brazilian Soybean crop will be a monster, and harvest is nearing completion. They won't waste any time getting the Corn in the ground as well. It looks like the Wheat will survive as needed rains came for much of the Wheat in drought conditions. I feel this all points to lower grain prices in the near term. We will have to wait and see if the weather continues to cooperate and if it does, we could see much lower Soybean prices. I still like buying November'26 Soybeans and selling July'26 Soybeans. I have new trades in Grain Markets ready to go in the Option Markets. I would like to talk to you about it, give me a call when you have a chance. Have a great night. 

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If you don't like the customer service or personal attention you are receiving from your broker, you have options, and you don't have to stay there. I can have your new account open in 1-2 days. Call me anytime 312-957-8079   BALLEN@WALSHTRADING.COM     Sign Up Now

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THE TRADES BELOW WERE STRUCTURED AND SENT OUT 6/11/26

THE FIRST TRADE BELOW SETTLED TODAY AT 2.35 OR $940.00/TRADE PACKAGE. THE SECOND TRADE BELOW SETTLED TODAY AT 2.67 ½ OR $1,070.00/TRADE PACKAGE

THE TRADES BELOW WERE STRUCTURED AND SENT OUT 6/8/26

THE FIRST TRADE BELOW SETTLED TODAY AT 2.77 ½ OR $1,110.00/TRADE PACKAGE

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If you would like to open an account, please use this direct link https://portal2.straitsfinancial.com/Identity/Account/Register?brokerId=978

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Having a Trading or Hedging Account is essential for your business to be successful. Market volatility has increased across all commodities over the last 12 months, and I expect it to continue to increase over the next 12 months as well. Opening an account in the future, will not help you if you need access now. To be successful, you need to be able to manage risk in real time. If you are proactive now, you will have the ability to be reactive when you need to be. You can be Prepared and Patient at the same time. Call me or hit the direct link above.

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Thank you to all of my Canadian Customers. If you live in Alberta or Ontario, you are able to open an account in the USA. Hopefully we can work with the Province of Saskatchewan, and all Canadian Provinces soon. Your ability to open an account in the US is blocked by your Provincial Governments, not by the United States. 

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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it. 

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GOD BLESS AMERICA

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Give me a call if you have any questions.

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Bill Allen

Vice President

Pure Hedge Division 

Direct: 312-957-8079

ballen@walshtrading.com

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