Cattle Markets Lower on Plant closings

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Cattle futures trade lower on JBS plant closings. Cattle and Feeders Traded to their highs early and then traded to their lows. Both markets recovered towards the end of the day to settle above their low trades. It was early rumors that JBS is closing a production plant in Pennsylvania that set he markets in a downward spiral with confirmation coming later along with the additional closing of a value-added protein packaging plant in Tennessee that kept prices in a weakened state. The recovery towards the end of the day looked like some short-covering into the weekend as the packer traded cash at higher prices towards the end of the day. Cash trades topped off at 259.00 on Friday as packers weren’t able to get their fill at lower price levels. The plant closings keep traders on edge as they expect more plants to close with the lighter cattle numbers. This is another round of negative news  to hit traders as they absorb the screwworm news as we are now in full swing of the grilling season and they watch cutouts continue to be a drag on sentiment. Choice looked poised to run higher into the weekend but it once again failed to launch, ending the week below last Friday’s choice cutout.  In my opinion, the plant closing highlights the lack of cattle slaughter numbers we have been seeing in 2026. We are down 9% from last year’s already light slaughter numbers. This shows, in my opinion that cattle numbers are low and the reason the packers are slaughtering less cattle is because of the tight numbers; not that they are trying to back up the feedlots as some contend. Closing plants is a sign the packer feels comfortable moving product to other locations because they can’t justify keeping the plant open because the numbers just aren’t there to keep these plants open. With capacity still unfilled at the other plants, it likely won’t back cattle up and drive cash lower as traders may believe. Weights have been in decline and the choice has once again been building a premium to select which likely means the packer has to be more aggressive to get the choice product as the weights decline as the producer has according to my customers, have been selling their cattle earlier than they did before, which means they have moved cattle at lighter weights, likely lowering the percentage of choice and prime. What this likely does, however, is make cattlemen and women, less likely to attempt to increase their herd size as why would I want to play in the packers’ hands with the plant closings. Sure, you close a plant and we’ll raise more cattle so you can say I don’t have shackle space for your rebuilt herd but I’ll take those cattle you want to sell at a lower price… The chess game continues. We’ll see!... August Feeder Cattle opened unchanged, traded to the high at 360.30 and then broke down to the low at 355.20. It recovered off the low to settle at 357.425. The rally stalled just under Thursday’s high and the 100-DMA just above at 360.65. The breakdown to the low took price to 355.20 which was just above support at 354.55. There is also where the declining 21-DMA is at. Support is strong just below with the 200-DMA looming at 353.675. If price fails at the 200-DMA, we could see a pullback towards support at the rising 8-DMA and 13-DMAs now at 353.15 and 352.45 respectively. Support then comes in at 350.20. If settlement holds, we could test resistance at 358.875. Resistance then comes in at the 100-DMA. The 50-DMA is next at 361.925. August Live Cattle opened lower and traded to the high at 243.125. The market then broke down to the low at 238.55. The high was below the Thursday high and was another test of resistance at 242.05 and the declining 21-DMA now at 242.10. The breakdown stalled just above support at 238.125, leading to the strong recovery that saw price move back into the upper end of the trading trade and settling at 241.175. The recovery took price above the rising 8 and 13-DMAs now at 240.325 and 240.425 respectively. It did settle below the 100-DMA now at 241.575. If price breaks down below the 8 and 13-DMAs, it could re-test support at 238.125. Support then comes in at the rising 200-DMA now at 236.45. If cattle can retake the key level at 242.05, it could retest resistance at the 21-DMA and Thursday high at 243.25. Resistance then comes in at 245.125.                   

The Feeder Cattle Index released Friday decreased and is at 368.01 as of 06/11/2026 settlement. 

Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts ticked higher 0.04 to 392.70 and select decreased 0.35 to 382.69. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 10.01 and the load count was 91.

Friday’s estimated slaughter is 95,000, which is below last week’s 100,000 and last year’s 100,859. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 8,000, which is above last week’s 5,000 and last year’s 1,655. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 524,000, which is below last week’s 533,000 and last year’s 560,282.

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been limited on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle, Nebraska, and the Western Cornbelt. In the Texas Panhandle, there have been a few live purchases at 255.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market test in the Texas Panhandle was last week with live purchases at mostly 256.00. In Nebraska there have been a few live purchases at 255.00 and a few dressed purchases ranging from 403.00- 410.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market test in Nebraska was last week with live purchases at mostly 256.00 and dressed purchases at mostly 405.00. In the Western Cornbelt there have been a few live purchases from 254.00-256.00 and a few dressed purchases ranging from 400.00-409.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market test in the Western Cornbelt was last week with live purchases at mostly 256.00 and dressed purchases at 405.00. Negotiated cash trade has been mostly inactive on light demand in Kansas. The last established market test in Kansas was last week with live purchases from 256.00 -258.00. 

The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 252.00 – 259.00 and from  400.00 to 409.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

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