“Shootin’ The Bull”
by Christopher B Swift
6/08/2026
Live Cattle:
Over fed cattle? Something is impacting the August and October fats. Today's lower trading is believed a direct result from the congestion at the center of the plate. With so many additional long fed cattle, and beef not moving to the extent some thought, it could well be that there is a back up taking place. The manipulation of marketing and slaughter has met a stalemate. Although cattle feeders were able to produce a hefty profit, the reason for was the lower price of feeder cattle when placed. The last of which should be well on their way to hooks. Packers continue to lose money, and were fat prices to trade lower, the losses would begin to mount on cattle feeders.
Today's price action gave all a little something to work with. If one did not like last Thursday's low, this morning's higher trade helped one to make adjustments in a more favorable environment. If one did not like last Friday's high, the sell off into the close offered some reprieve from. Of the most interest is the close of the August contract with two months and two weeks to expiration, at a $21.00 discount, closed on the low of the day, and a new low close from contract high. Somebody out there thinks that beef and cattle won't be nearly as bullish in two months as today.
Feeder Cattle:
I listened to some comments of how bullish this issue will be. No doubt, it can be. An argument for was that inventory outside of the quarantine areas should be worth a lot more. That may be so until your area is quarantined and you just paid even more for inventory, and now can't move them. For the moment though, few producers have had an opportunity to visit the sale barns and bid higher. Consumers have not had to restock grocery's yet and I can't imagine many having canceled the steak house reservations on such short notice. So, this issue, that has been around for nearly 2 years, but just became pertinent on Thursday morning, may need more time to evolve to see if it actually impacts consumer demand, or does anything to influence price direction. As above, you are being offered ways and means to deal with extensive price fluctuation and volatility of. You just simply have to make some decisions, allow those to mature to fruition, and live with the consequences of hindsight.
Corn:
A man walks into the Casino and promptly loses his money. Feeling despondent over the losses, heads for the door. Reaching into his pocket, he finds a quarter. He slips it into the slot machine at the exit door, and, promptly loses it to. That is the way I feel about corn. Even this morning, at the opening, after selling off all night, it opened to a new low. After such, the price rose, sat there for the majority of the session, and then, still closed lower. I do not know if corn prices will ever go back up, but this is believed an opportunity to buy corn calls at strike price levels you no longer wish to have to pay for corn. Beans were no better and wheat was actually higher on the day.
Energy:
Energy opened and remained higher through both sessions. The age of the bull market, and current correction phase of prices consolidating, leads me to anticipate a sharp rally higher. Upside potential for diesel fuel is up to $5.00 per gallon. Continued drawn downs of stocks and elevated use are expected to keep a firm undertone on diesel fuel. Any further escalation of events is expected to send it higher quickly, while status quo, just moving higher. I recommend topping off farm tanks and keep them topped off to average costs. I recommend you put pencil to paper to see how much difference there would be to your bottom line with diesel fuel $1.00 to $2.00 higher this fall, in comparison to $1.00 lower.
Bonds:
Bonds were soft, but not by much. The President wants inflation, with actions through quantitative easing fanning the flames. Maybe rates do need to move higher, but I'm not sure that will help, as it appears government spending is on a roll and not expected to let up anytime soon. I am concerned about oil as with the President's statements of, "the price will come down when the war is over" is not very comforting. Note how much energy prices are impacting inflation, and how much worse deflation is to businesses, and consider that were oil prices to start to slide, and there is a bunch of it, the impact could produce significant unintended consequences.
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