Shootin' the Bull about the influence of Tweets

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

5/28/2026

Live Cattle:

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Swift Trading was pleased to be interviewed by Joe Roberts for Nebraska Cattleman in the June/July issue.  The article is HERE.

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Listen Friday to a round table discussion at 2:15 cst on AgriTalk with Michelle Rook, Tommy Grisafi, and myself.   

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​There were very few analyst's that didn't comment on the 2 minute reaction from Trump's tweet this morning.  I have little reservation of its intended consequence as it appeared the equities may have been slowing, and the easiest way to pump the equity market is to simply say there is a deal with Iran.  Unfortunately, it may have done more damage than good to cattle.  I believe that Algo programs picked up the noise from equities and started pulling offers as quickly as possible.  This produced a gush of air, but with no more behind it, left the cattle market at a lower level than when announced. I've heard conflicting cash news of packers having bought enough inventory for the next couple of weeks, and others thinking the packer will have to bid higher to attract cattle.  Regardless of which, the congestion at the center of the plate, that is believed to have topped the price of cattle, remains. Wednesday's higher box trade may have helped to complete any wrap up of Fathers Day needs and most likely, well into the fourth of July.  Cattlemen are believed having to come to grips with the possibility of the rally being over with.  This is more than difficult as not much has changed in the aspects of cattle to work with.  However, with the congestion at the center of the plate taking place, losses in multiple sectors of the industry, and projected margins no better, cattle prices need to move away from this price area, whether higher or lower to create profit potential.

Most contract months traded within Wednesday's trading range.  With the oscillator pointed south, and below the zero line, it will take a whale of a rally to turn them higher.  

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​​​​Feeder Cattle: ​

Basis narrowed nearly $10.00 on Wednesday, only to give back $4.00 today.  As packers are resisting having to pay more for fat cattle, cattle feeders are doing the same to backgrounders.  Futures traders have created a huge positive basis spread that has as much likelihood of being converged with cash lower as futures higher.  As well, I think it possible that with May off the board, and 90 days until August expiration, there is a chance, however slim, that futures could plummet and sit there, in a very wide basis until closer to expiration. 

The upcoming video sales will market as much, if not more inventory than for the remainder of the year.  Price for feeder cattle and stockers remains within 2% of historical high and August futures 7% from contract high. How much is it worth to you to protect 97% of the current value?  The $352.00 August put closed at approximately $11.30 today and is 3% of the value of the contract.  Less than 9 months ago, feeder cattle experienced a 21% decline of $81.50 in 7 weeks.  That was not the top of the market.  Were this time to be the top, we could potentially see that again, if not more.

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If you have cattle to market on the video sales, I recommend owning the at the money August put option.  This is a sales solicitation.  On the day the gavel slams on your load, call me and I will offset the option at whatever premium is left, or profit and you may or may not have lost the entire option premium, that could narrow that 3% down even more. I'm not calling a top, and there is no telling to what extent someone may go, to own a cow, steer, heifer, calf or two headed monster.  This recommendation is to simply maintain what appears to be a fleeting price.  Have a question? Call me.  Have a different opinion? Run it by me and we'll throw it against the wall to see if it sticks. 

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​​​​Corn:

Every market is believed tied to the Algo with most likely just different strategies for different markets.  Corn and beans reacted to the tweet this morning as well, but not to the same extent as other markets did.  Similar to the cattle, it was only a gush of air before beans came back to set a new high for the day and corn a nickel higher at the close.  Wheat was the red headed step child today in not much impacted it at all.  KC set one more new low by a fraction this session.  I am unsure how a limit up day has evolved into this significant of a sell off.  It did though and I anticipate a higher trade from here.  

Energy:​

In two minutes, diesel fuel dropped a little over $.12.  That is an approximate $5,000.00 per contract move in less than 2 minutes.  The President's tweets are inflammatory towards markets and are believed with little reservation to be intended to cause the reactions it does.  However you may look at this, know that it can provide as much opportunity as does detriment.  Note the rally today in cattle was believed solely based upon that tweet, and nothing else.  Therefore, had he not tweeted, producers may not have had the opportunity to act when prices were higher.  Note there is rarely follow up tweets after the intentions are met.  Energy remains in a bull market and is anticipated to trade higher.  ​

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Bonds:

​Bonds and notes were higher as jobless claims increased and seemingly the 1st quarter GDP is falling a little short of expectations.  A combination of this factor, and the President's tweet, pushed bonds to a new recovery high from the contract low this morning.  Consumers should expect higher core inflation and higher commodity inflation, as there is no let up in quantitative easing or government spending.  Both leading to the need for higher interest rates that are currently being suppressed.     

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​​​​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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