Friday’s trade out of the quarterly report has futures giving back the entirety of Thursday’s recovery, and futures are back to new lows for the week’s move. Dec is at a net 40c loss so far Fri/Fri. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was $1.73 weaker to $76.53. CME’s 9/26 Lean Hog Index dropped another 17 cents to $86.14.
The Quarterly H&P update showed the hog herd was 74.319m head on September 1st. That was up 0.26% from Sep ’22, compared to the average trade guess for a 1% drop. June 1 inventory was revised 350,000 head higher, with the March 1 inventory up 455,000 head, which offsets some of the miss from the average pre-report estimate. The breeding herd was lower yr/yr by 1.2%, matching the average trade guess. NASS showed the June-Aug pig crop was 34.229m head, a surprise 0.4% increase yr/yr compared to the 1.4% decrease expected. Pigs/litter jumped to 11.61 vs. 11.13 last year. Farrowing intentions for Sep-Nov were listed as 2.93m head, down 162k (-5.2%), and for Dec-Feb as 2.912m head (-1.4%).
Pork cutout futures are down triple digits with a 4% loss in the Dec contract. USDA’s National Pork Cutout Value was another 28 cents weaker this morning to $96.64. USDA estimated the FI hog slaughter at 1.923m head for the week through Thursday. That is down from 1.938m last week, and is 1,000 head lighter than the same week last year.
| Oct 23 Hogs | are at $80.325, down $3.625, |
| Dec 23 Hogs | are at $71.775, down $3.750 |
| Oct 23 Pork Cutout | is at $92.500, down $2.175, |
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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