Shootin' the Bull about a lot of exceptional factors at play

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

5/13/2026

Live Cattle:

Exceptional volatility and price expanse continued today.  I don't see it letting up anytime soon as packers continue to fight one another to fill hook space and cattlemen attempting to utilize as much capacity as possible.  All the while, futures traders are simply reacting to all of the news and fundamentals around them, which sometimes leads them to sell and other's to buy.  The width of basis and seeming prospects of steady, if not higher, cash this week, is causing a snap back of futures to converge the wide basis spreads. I continue to anticipate a widening inverted carry to remain between contract months that will keep the basis at a width for which producers will have to manage. 

​​​​Feeder Cattle:

Like the fats, I anticipate the inverted carry to remain and basis to remain wide until necessary to have to converge.  I anticipate the spread between fats and feeders to narrow.  This would be of great help to cattle feeders.  The wide basis to the back end is believed of benefit to cattle feeders that will need to be procuring inventory into next year.  The chart below shows the same pattern I had prior to the 7 day, $25.00 rally from 4/23 to 5/1.  The difference being the current double top made the chart look a little different, but if you consider how big of a top, and exceptional fundamentals are, this may well be a huge two-headed monster top. Until something changes, I anticipate a neck line down to around the mid-March lows and then sideways to higher trading to get through the June and July video sales.  

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​​​​Corn:

A mixed trade today with mostly lower trading, but all were plus on the day at some point.  I anticipate all three to trade higher as wheat has resumed an upward trend with strong fundamentals of a poor crop, and beans and corn at new handles.  With there seemingly a desire to buy grains and oilseeds, from an inflationary stand point, this weeks inflationary data didn't hurt.  ​

Energy:​

​Energy has seen both sides of unchanged.  The President's meeting with China will most likely produce a great deal of volatility over night as they will be starting talks about the time for bed.  For the moment, energy appears having resumed its up trend with expectations of higher. 

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Bonds:

​Bonds are lower, but not by much considering the inflation figures this week. Inflation is soaring and not much, if anything, is being done about it. While I understand the growth of the economy is desired and that increased employment and wages are expected to offset the inflation, but it never seems to work that way, or does so in a lengthy time frame that on a person to person basis doesn't help.  

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​​​​​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.